Pivotal events in 2019
Today, we begin a new year.
For employees in the private sector, it’s back to work tomorrow. The inertia of rest caused by the Christmas break has to be overcome because there are business or employment responsibilities to be performed and, most importantly, bills to be paid.
In May, the country will hold national and local elections. As in the past, the midterm polls would serve as a referendum on the Duterte administration’s performance since it assumed power in 2016.
Although recent surveys showed high trust ratings for President Duterte, there is no assurance his popularity would automatically translate to votes for his anointed candidates, especially those running for senators.
If the majority of his allies win the senatorial seats, there is a strong possibility the campaign to shift to a federal system of government may gain ground.
For now, that idea appears to be a big question mark because of strong opposition from the Senate.
A poor showing of the President’s senatorial candidates in the polls would spell political trouble for him. It would indicate a grave erosion of his political influence that would make him, midway in his term, a lame duck president.
Aside from putting an end to the proposed change in the government system, the setback would encourage senators with presidential ambitions to start preparations for the 2022 elections.
With the President’s political clout on the downtrend, these presidential aspirants would be more aggressive in opposing administration-sponsored bills that, in their opinion, may make life difficult for majority of Filipinos.
If this happens, the rest of the tax reform measures the administration’s economic managers want to put in place before the President exits in 2022 would be at serious risk.
To date, only the first phase of that program, or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law, is in place, and even then some of its provisions are in danger of being watered down.
The second phase, dubbed as the Tax Reform for Attracting Better and Higher Quality Opportunities (Trabaho) bill, is pending in the Senate. Some senators have expressed reservations about the bill’s plan to remove the tax privileges earlier given to companies operating within the country’s special economic zones because of possible massive job layoffs.
Unless a workable compromise on this issue is reached between the economic managers and senators concerned, the chances of this bill becoming a law in the shape desired by the administration are nil.
And assuming the bill passes legislative muster, the other tax reform packages may find rough sailing in the future.
Unlike the early months of the Duterte administration when most senators gave the economic managers a pass in recognition of its newly acquired mandate, a Senate that is not dominated by the President’s allies may be less cooperative, especially the senators who think they are God’s anointed to solve the country’s problems.
If the tax measures are not enacted into law and implemented to raise additional revenues, the administration’s infrastructure and other socioeconomic programs are bound to fail and that would translate to political disaster in 2022.
Given these considerations, expect the administration to go all out and use every trick in the book to campaign for its senatorial candidates in the coming polls. Its political future will be shaped by the election results.
Although the President earlier said he would not use government resources to ensure the victory of his candidates, that would not stop his subalterns from doing otherwise on the sly.
The age-old dictum “what are we in power for?” still remains a part of our political environment.
Depending on your disposition, 2019 will either be a productive year or will be no different from the year just ended.
A pleasant and peaceful New Year to all!
