PH seen becoming 18th biggest economy by 2037

The Philippines will move up to become the 18th biggest economy in the world by 2037, partly to be boosted by a continuously growing labor force population, according to London-based Capital Economics.

In its Long-Term Global Economic Outlook 2019 report last week, Capital Economics projected the Philippines would have a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of $1.414 trillion by 2037, just behind the economies of the United States, China, India, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Italy, Indonesia, Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia by that time.

Ranked 25th in terms of nominal GDP in 2017, the Philippines will overtake Turkey, Poland, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, South Africa and Argentina two decades from now, based on Capital Economics’ projections.

Across South and Southeast Asia, Capital Economics described the economic outlook over the coming decades as “brighter.”

“Thailand is the only one among these countries where the working age population is forecast to contract. Meanwhile, working age populations will still grow at a fairly rapid pace in countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia and India,” it said.

By 2037, the Philippines’ nominal GDP per capita would be $10,437 as the country’s population is expected to balloon to 129 million from 102 million last year.

For the period 2018 to 2022, Capital Economics expects the Philippines’ GDP growth to average 6 percent, below the government’s medium-term target range of 7-8 percent.

From 2023 to 2027, real GDP growth will sustain an average 6-percent growth, before slowing to 5.5 percent in 2028-2037, Capital Economics’ forecasts showed.

Average inflation for 2018-2022 is seen at 4.5 percent—above the 2-4 percent target range—before easing to 3.5 percent in 2023-2027 and 3 percent in 2028-2037.