Neda chief sees 6.4% GDP growth in Q2

The country’s chief economist expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to have had grown by at least 6.4 percent in the second quarter, a similar pace as in the first three months on account of a lack in election-spending boost from April to June unlike last year.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia told reporters late Monday that growth rates after an election year historically slowed down due to base effects.

Pernia, who heads the state planning agency National Economic and Development Authority, said he has a “more modest” forecast of second-quarter GDP growth.

“Hopefully it could be around the first-quarter performance at least, for the second quarter,” Pernia said, citing sustained exports and manufacturing growth.

The economy grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, slower than expectations but still among the fastest in the region.

Just last month, Pernia said he expected second-quarter GDP growth to “approach 7 percent” and be faster than the expansion during the first three months.

“The second quarter will be better if you look at the leading indicators,” Pernia had said, noting the strong year-to-date growth in the agriculture and export sectors.

Despite lacking a boost from election spending unlike a year ago, Pernia was earlier optimistic that second-quarter growth would pick up from the first quarter.

Pernia had blamed the lower-than-expected first-quarter growth rate to slower government spending, higher prices of consumer goods as well as the dissipated impact of election-related expenditures last year.

The government targets 6.5-7.5 percent GDP growth this year. This is anchored on a plan by the Duterte administration to ramp up spending on vital infrastructure projects.