Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia, head of the National Economic and Development Authority (File photo by JOAN BONDOC / Philippine Daily Inquirer)
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia, the government’s chief economist, expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to have grown by at least 6.4 percent in the second quarter of 2017, at a similar pace as in the first three months of the year on account of the lack of election-spending boost from April to June, unlike in the previous year.
In an interview with reporters late Monday, Pernia noted that growth rates after an election year would historically slow down due to base effects.
Pernia, who heads the state planning agency National Economic and Development Authority, said he had a “more modest” forecast for the GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017.
“Hopefully it could be around the first-quarter performance at least, for the second quarter,” Pernia said, citing sustained exports and manufacturing growth.
The economy grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, slower than expectations but still among the fastest in the region.
Just last month, Pernia said he expected second-quarter GDP growth to “approach 7 percent” and be faster than the expansion during the first three months.
“The second quarter will be better if you look at the leading indicators,” Pernia had said, noting of strong year-to-date growth in the agriculture and export sectors.
Despite lacking a boost from election spending unlike a year ago, Pernia was earlier optimistic that second-quarter growth would pickup from the first quarter.
Pernia had blamed the lower-than-expected first-quarter growth rate to slower government spending, higher prices of consumer goods, and the dissipated impact of election-related expenditures last year.
The government targets a GDP growth of 6.5-percent to 7.5-percent this year. /atm