PH to outperform growth in Asean — BMI Research

MANILA — The Philippines, together with Myanmar and Vietnam, are expected to post the fastest economic growth in Asean mainly on the back of rosy domestic prospects, the research arm of the Fitch Group said Tuesday.

In a report titled “Positive Outlook for Asean and India Amid North Asia Weakness,” BMI Research said the Philippines would exhibit growth outperformance in the near term amid improved business environment coupled with a growing young population and the Duterte administration’s infrastructure buildup.

BMI Research projected the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by an average of 6.2 percent in 2017 and 2018.

The GDP grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, lower than expectations but among the fastest across emerging economies in the region.

The government targets GDP growth of 6.5-7.5 percent this year and 7-8 percent next year.

Meanwhile, increasing investments in Myanmar and “greater political stability” under the ruling National League for Democracy would bring about nearly 7.5-percent growth both in 2017 and 2018, BMI Research said.

Growing reform momentum, stable political environment and booming manufacturing thanks to multinational firms pulling out their investments from a more expensive China would drive Vietnam’s growth, BMI Research added.

“We are relatively sanguine on Asean’s economic growth prospects over the coming years, and it is likely to be the bright spot in the region, with our forecasts showing real GDP growth picking up to 4.9 percent in 2018 from 4.6 percent in 2017,” BMI Research said.

As for India, BMI Research said it was showing signs of recovery after suffering from last year’s demonetization, as the subcontinent’s economy would gain from positive demographic trends, greater external stability as well as continued reforms aimed at improving the business environment.

While it has relatively rosier outlooks for Asean and India, BMI Research has projected a slowdown in North Asia mostly due to “structural slowdown in China, poor policy mix in Japan, and policy uncertainty in South Korea.”  SFM