Economists see slowdown in june inflation

The rate of increase in consumer prices likely eased in June compared to the previous month—although still much faster than the 1.9 percent year-on-year recorded in the same month of 2016—allowing bank regulators to keep their policy rate steady.

Five of the six economists polled by the Inquirer peg June inflation within the range of 2.8 percent to 3 percent, mainly due to the softening prices of fuel, food and utilities.

The lone outlier was Gundy Cahyadi of DBS Bank Ltd., who expected inflation to have ticked upward to 3.2 percent last month.

Chidu Narayanan of Standard Chartered thinks inflation likely fell for the third consecutive month to 3 percent.

“Inflation has peaked, in our view [and] we expect it to average 3 percent in the second half of 2017, down from an estimated 3.2 percent in the first half,” Narayanan said.

Metrobank research analyst Pauline May Ann E. Revillas was more optimistic with a forecast of 2.9 percent.

This is due to “the slower annual increases in the prices of some food items like fruits and vegetables, lower petroleum product prices, and lower electricity rates,” Revillas said.

Eugenia Fabon Victorino of ANZ Branking Group, noting that oil prices remained under downward pressure.

Also concurring on 2.9 percent was Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, saying that further declines in world oil prices have resulted in lower domestic retail prices.

The most optimistic among the economists polled was Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan of Land Bank of the Philippines, who thinks inflation likely fell to 2.8 percent.