Palay output seen rising by 11.8% in 1st semester

Palay production for the first semester is expected to reach 8.55 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast, despite a lower-than-expected output in the first quarter, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The PSA said the latest forecast was 10,000 tons higher than the 8.54 million tons, which was announced in January.

The upgraded forecast would mean an 11.8-percent growth from the 7.65 million tons harvested in the first six months of 2016.

Last week, the agency said farms turned out 4.42 million tons in the quarter ending March, jumping 12.4 percent from 3.93 million tons in the same period of 2016.

First-quarter growth was attributed to a 6.4-percent expansion in planted areas, which hit 1.15 million hectares. Yield also grew by 5.8 percent to reach 3.85 million tons per hectare.

Palay production in the first quarter this year improved coming from a low base due to abnormally dry conditions brought about by the El Niño phenomenon as well as damage from strong typhoons.

As for the second quarter, the PSA forecasts the harvest to grow by 11.1 percent to 4.13 million tons, based on crops that are standing in the field.

In the June quarter, the PSA expects harvest area to grow but yield may contract slightly.

“Probable growths in production are expected due to increments in harvest areas resulting from availability of irrigation water and sufficient rainfall during planting periods and availability of seeds from Department of Agriculture’s regional field offices and local government units (LGUs),” the PSA said.

The more sanguine outlook comes as the NFA Council, the highest decision-making body of the National Food Authority, said the agency would resume importation of milled rice to shore up its buffer stock with the approach of the lean production months of July to September.

According to the PSA, nationwide stocks of milled rice were at 2.68 million tons as of April 1, 23 percent more than the inventory a month earlier.

Such supply would last for 79 days, based on a national consumption volume of about 32,000 tons daily.

For the NFA alone, the stockpile was placed at 327,240 tons, which is good for 10 days. This was down by 18 percent from 397,000 tons in March.

Milled rice stored in households—accounting for 54 percent of national inventory—reached 1.44 million tons (42 days) from 1.15 million tons a month earlier.

Commercial warehouses were holding 397,360 tons (27 days) or about one-third of total supply, increasing from 626,930 tons previously.