Finance sees Q1 GDP growth at 7%

Strong agriculture and manufacturing growth likely buoyed gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the first quarter by about 7 percent, the Department of Finance’s chief economist said yesterday.

Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran told reporters on the sidelines of the Treasury bonds auction yesterday that his conservative forecast of at least 7-percent GDP growth in the first three months was based on the recovery of the agriculture sector coupled with the robust growth in the country’s manufacturing output.

The government reported on Monday that Philippine agricultural production jumped by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to reach P203.1 billion at constant prices, recovering from a low base that was brought about by destructive weather conditions last year.

Farm output grew after two consecutive quarters of decline —by 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2.3 percent in the third quarter, the latest Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed.

As for manufacturing, the PSA reported last week that it sustained double-digit expansion for the second straight month in March.

Beltran’s forecast was within the government’s full-year GDP growth target of 6.5-7.5 percent.

The government is scheduled to announce the country’s first-quarter economic performance on Thursday.

Beltran said a 7-percent growth was sustainable as the government was “putting the fundamentals in good shape.”

According to Beltran, the government was working to ensure that the programmed wider budget deficit of 3 percent will be met while inflation will be within the target range of 2 to 4 percent.

“If you’ll maintain those fundamentals, you’ll never go wrong. Growth can be as high as you can imagine,” Beltran said.—BEN O. DE VERA