PH among ‘winners’ in region in export growth

The Philippines was cited as among the “winners” in the Asia-Pacific region whose export growth “strongly outperformed” global demand in the last seven years, UK-based Oxford Economics said.

In its March 27 report titled “Asia globalization winners and losers trade places,” Oxford Economics identified the Philippines, China, India and South Korea as the countries that posted “robust gains in productivity and/or moved up the value chain, gaining global market share in the process” from 2010 to 2017.

Oxford Economics data showed that from 2010 to 2016, the Philippines enjoyed a compounded yearly export growth rate of 7.8 percent, exceeding India’s 5.4 percent, South Korea’s 5.3 percent, China’s 4.6 percent, Indonesia’s 4.1 percent, Malaysia’s 3.7 percent, Australia’s 3.2 percent, Singapore, Thailand’s 2 percent and Taiwan’s 1.4 percent.

Exports of Japan and Hong Kong declined 2 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, during the same seven-year period.

Oxford Economics said export growth in Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia “broadly tracked” world demand, while those in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong “lagged” global demand.

“Our winners—the Philippines, India, South Korea and China—are economies that since 2009 have enjoyed robust growth in manufacturing exports and seized global market share in the process. Our gold star performers are economies that mostly started from modest levels of development and wages and generated robust gains in productivity and/or moved up the value chain due to structural changes and reforms,” Oxford Economics said.

In the case of the Philippines and Malaysia, Oxford Economics said these economies “have picked up the slack, buoyed by lower costs of production and increasing foreign investments.”

Oxford Economics noted that the Philippines was the lone Asean-6 country that saw the share of job-generating foreign direct investment to gross domestic product increase since 2010.

Also, it helped that the export performances of the Philippines and India came from a “relatively low base,” Oxford Economics added.

Moving forward, “India and the Philippines should continue to experience strong growth as their relatively immature, or in the case of India, fragmented manufacturing sectors continue to ‘catch up’ with more established rivals,” Oxford Economics said.