Consumer confidence reaches all-time high

An improved peace-and-order situation alongside the government’s plan to end so-called “endo” pushed consumers’ optimism in the fourth quarter to its highest level to date, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said Friday.

However, some consumers were also worried about the rising number of alleged extrajudicial killings, tempering optimism for early next year, results of the BSP’s consumer expectations survey for the October-to-December period showed.

In the fourth quarter, the overall confidence index (CI) jumped to a new record high of 9.2 percent, staying in positive territory after the CI climbed to 2.5 percent in the third quarter following almost a decade of negative readings.

A positive CI meant the number of optimistic households exceeded those that were pessimistic.

Teresita B. Deveza, deputy director at the BSP’s department of economic statistics, told a media briefing that survey respondents attributed their confidence to improvements in the peace and order situation; effective government policies such as ending job contractualization and the no-window-hour policy in the number coding scheme; anticipated increase in salaries, and availability of more jobs.

“Respondents also cited assistance from government such as the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), new administration/President, less corruption, anti-drug campaign and improvement in services of government agencies (such as easier process to get NBI clearance and birth certificate), which helped boost consumer confidence for the current quarter,” Deveza added.

BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo noted that consumers were usually more bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Christmas holiday season and the influx of remittances from Filipinos overseas.

Guinigundo also noted the sustained robust economic growth that made consumers more optimistic.

For the first quarter of 2017, the latest survey showed that the CI dropped to 18.8 percent from the 27.3 percent CI for the fourth quarter as reflected in the July 2016 survey by the BSP.

According to Deveza, “respondents’ less upbeat outlook for the next quarter and the year ahead stemmed from households’ concerns about higher prices of goods, lower income, unstable stock market, fewer investors in the country and issues on extrajudicial killings.”

Deveza explained that the respondents themselves indicated these factors through open-ended questions.

The fourth-quarter survey was conducted last Oct. 3 to 14.