Gov’t lowers exports growth forecasts through 2017

The Duterte administration has cut by at least half the export growth rate forecast both for 2016 and 2017 following the global economic slowdown that has been pushing down outbound trade for the past year and a half.

According to the Department of Trade and Industry, growth targets for the last two years of the Philippine Export Development Plan 2015-2017 were now pegged at zero to 3 percent for 2016 and 3-5 percent for 2017.

The three-year PEDP, crafted during the Aquino administration, was aimed as helping the exports industry “shrug off its uneven performance in the past years.”

However, the plan was revised following 17 months of decline. Data from the Export Marketing Bureau showed that “(i)t was only in September 2016 when Philippine exports reflected an increase of 5.1 percent” with total export sales reaching $5.2 billion that month.

Last September, electronic products remained to be the top Philippine export while Japan remained as the top destination for Philippine goods and services.

The revised PEDP sees exports rising to $89.5 billion this year, down from the previous target of about $92 billion.

Also, exports are expected to bring in in 2017 a total of $92 billion to $93.8 billion, down from $99.3 billion to $104.1 billion previously.

In a forum at this year’s National Exporters Congress held in Pasay City, Trade Undersecretary Nora K. Terrado said the government now expected exports to breach the $100-billion mark “before 2020.”

“Through PEDP, our goal is not only to increase our total export revenues and make Philippine products known in the global market but also to address constraints in export growth,” Terrado said.

“As we do this, we expect to open more opportunities for employment and increase household income in the coming periods,” she added.

Terrado, who is in charge of the DTI’s industry promotion group, said that if the new targets were met, employment generation would improve by an additional 225,000 jobs in 2016 and 600,000 jobs in 2017.

Earlier, Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III said the Duterte administration was crafting a national employment program— to be implemented over the next five years of the Duterte administration—that would result in 1.2  million new jobs yearly.

This year’s exporters congress highlighted the role of inclusive business models in providing access to domestic micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to the global value chains (GVCs).

Terrado said that with its thrust of providing more jobs and making entrespreneurship an effective tool in eradicating poverty across the country, inclusive business would help its agenda by allowing small businesses to be part  of the GVCs.