Economists, analysts expect inflation easing in November
Inflation likely eased in November following the previous month’s 2.3-percent rise on the back of lower oil and utility costs.
“Our forecast for November inflation is at 2 percent amid lower food and gasoline prices,” Metrobank research analyst Pauline May Ann E. Revillas said. The government will release the November inflation figure on Tuesday.
University of Asia and the Pacific economist Victor A. Abola said: “Inflation rate should be slower than last month. Our forecast is 2 percent due to lower rice, fuel and electricity prices.”
Banco De Oro Unibank chief market strategist Jonathan L. Ravelas has a similar forecast.
“We expect inflation to have eased to 2.1 percent year-on-year in November. Transport and utility prices likely posted monthly contractions. However, this should have been partially offset by the food price gains as the country still deals with the effects of bad weather,” ANZ Research economist for South and Southeast Asia Eugenia F. Victorino said.
As for Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit, his forecast of a lower 2.1 percent rise in prices of basic goods in November was “helped by lower retail petroleum prices and moderate pricing pressures in other key sub-categories of the consumer price index basket such as food.”
Standard Chartered Bank economist for Asia Chidu Narayanan sees November inflation at 2.2 percent. “We expect that food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation, which makes up 39 percent of the CPI basket, remained high in November after contributing 1.31 percentage points to the headline increase in October. Housing and utilities were also likely contributors due to a low base effect. Housing inflation, which accounts for almost a quarter of the basket, rose to 0.9 percent year-on-year last month, the fastest pace of increase in 24 months. But we expect transport inflation to remain low,” he said.
Ateneo de Manila University economics professor Alvin P. Ang’s projection was also 2.2 percent. “Relatively, prices of oil, power and food were yet to be affected by the weaker peso, and there was no significant supply disturbance.”
For his part, Land Bank of the Philippines market economist Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan said “consumer prices might have increased by 2.2 percent, driven primarily by the peso’s depreciation,” last November. The peso breached eight-year low levels last month.
“The impact of higher import costs as a result of a weaker peso might have been partly offset by a sharper annual decline in oil prices. On average, oil prices fell by about 11 percent year-on-year in November compared with October’s 7-percent annual decline. The lingering impact of Typhoons ‘Lawin’ and ‘Karen’ on farm output might have also contributed to higher prices last month,” Dumalagan added.
For economist Euben Paracuelles of Japanese financial giant Nomura, the headline inflation in November likely matched the two previous months’ 2.3 percent.
DBS Bank Ltd. economist Gundy Cahyadi also expects inflation at 2.3 percent last month. —BEN DE VERA
