The perception that the peace and order situation has improved under the watch of President Rodrigo R. Duterte and his administration’s intensified fight against illegal drugs bolstered confidence among consumers to an all-time high, results of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ latest Comsumer Expectations Survey (CES) showed.
The overall confidence index (CI) for the third quarter reached positive territory—the first time since the CES was first conducted in 2007—with a reading of 2.5 percent. The second-quarter CI was negative 6.4 percent.
The positive reading meant that the number of optimistic households surveyed outnumbered pessimists.
In a press conference Friday, Teresita B. Deveza, deputy director at the BSP’s department of economic statistics, said respondents attributed their more optimistic view for the July to September period to the following: improvements in the peace and order situation; assumption into office of the new administration as well as its pronounced campaign against drugs; and effective government policies.
Also cited by consumers as reasons for their more upbeat sentiment were availability of more jobs, stable commodity prices, anticipated wage hikes, as well as continuous assistance from the government through the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), Deveza said.
For the next quarter and next year, the three-quarter CES showed the CIs surging to 27.3 percent (compared with 5.6 percent a quarter ago) and 43.8 percent (from 2.6.6 percent in the second-quarter survey), respectively.
Deveza said the third-quarter CI outlooks for the fourth quarter and 2017 were also the highest since 2007.
“Consumers anticipated that improvements in the peace and order situation, availability of more jobs, salary increases and good governance would continue over the next 12 months,” Deveza said.
“They also expected a possible decrease in prices of goods, lower household expenses as well as an increase in household income and savings which could translate to growth in real income and higher purchasing power of the household,” she added.
According to Deveza, the low-income group was “more upbeat” across the three indicators of consumer confidence, namely: overall condition of the economy, family financial situation and family income.
The middle and high income groups had “mixed outlook” for the current quarter, the survey showed.
“For the near term and the year ahead, consumers were more optimistic across income groups in all three component indicators. Although the improvement in consumer outlook was observed across all income groups, it was driven primarily by the increase in confidence of the low income group even as the high income group remained to be the most optimistic,” Deveza said. Ben O. de Vera