Gov’t sees higher electronics exports in Q4

The country’s chief economist remains upbeat on the performance of electronics exports in the last quarter of 2011.

Citing reports from the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries of the Philippines Inc. (Seipi), Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga said that a seasonal boost in sales could be expected in the coming months due to an increase in demand during the holidays.

The full recovery of the electronics supply chain in Japan is also expected by the end of the third quarter of 2011, Paderanga said.

Out of reach

Seipi president Ernesto B. Santiago also said electronics exports would recover as second-half earnings could outpace that of the first.

But growth may not match the “historic highs” recorded in the second half of 2010, Santiago said in a phone interview. The full-year growth in electronics exports of 40.1 percent for 2010 may be out of reach.

Santiago explained that the economic recovery of many countries affected by the 2008 financial crisis was the reason why electronics exports surged in 2010.

Santiago noted that in 2011, economic turmoil in developed countries, as well as the disasters in Japan and the unrest in the Middle East, had dampened consumer spending.

Unlikely

Seipi is sticking to its revised 2011 forecast of a 5-percent contraction in trade from last year. Full recovery is expected in 2012, Santiago said.

Benjamin E. Diokno of the UP School of Economics said in a text message that electronics exports for the full year could be smaller compared with that of last year.

“Given the sharp decline of electronics exports in the first half of the year, even zero growth for the full year is unlikely,” Diokno said.

Cid L. Terosa of the University of Asia and the Pacific echoed Diokno’s opinion, saying that growth of electronic exports in the remaining months of 2011 may not be enough to push up the full-year level to a double-digit growth rate.

Holiday demand

But Terosa expressed optimism that the contraction in electronics exports expected in 2011 would not be that alarming.

“The holiday demand could still push growth to positive level,” Terosa said.

Electronics products, particularly semiconductors, posted double-digit growth nearly every month from July to December 2010.

Based on National Statistics Office data, electronics exports went down by 12.6 percent to $14.89 billion in the January-July period. In July alone, electronics slumped 21.3 percent to $2.25 billion in earnings.