PH urged to start talks following ruling vs China
THE PHILIPPINES has been urged to immediately initiate a multilateral dialogue to start the process of finding a lasting settlement to the territorial dispute with China.
Citi Philippines economist Jun Trinidad said in a research note titled “Weighing the Tribunal’s Decision on the Maritime Dispute” dated July 13 that the Philippines “should move towardeasing political tensions and initiate a multilateral dialogue on this maritime issue.”
Citi issued the note following the landmark ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that favored the Philippines.
The economist said the Philippines could use the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) platform and explore a regional cooperation framework with China and other claimants or stakeholders that would allow for bilateral and multilateral arrangements in fishing and exploration activities, international marine research/studies (such as coral reef protection) as well as air travel and shipping.
Asean refers to the 10-member regional bloc that recently formalized the creation of a unified economic bloc called Asean Economic Community.
“Approaching it this way that allows for mutual sharing of the benefits of cooperation that can be maximized [is] a superior outcome to a scenario of settling ‘who owns what’ by combat,” Trinidad said.
“However, it may take a lifetime to achieve regional cooperation, de-militarize the area, and accept ‘overlapping’ maritime border claims in the disputed South China seas. But dialogue is needed soon to ease risk of escalation of potential US-China tensions and deter armed conflicts in the area,” the economist said.
In its July 12 decision, the arbitration tribunal found ‘no evidence that China historically exercised exclusive control over South China seas and that historic rights to resources there had been extinguished by the international law of the sea convention or treaty under Unclos (United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea), which took effect on Nov. 16, 1982.
The tribunal also ruled that China had no legal basis to claim historic rights to resources, in excess of the rights provided for by the Convention, within the sea areas falling within the 9-dash line’.
But China said it neither accepts nor recognizes the Tribunal’s decision, referring to it as ‘null and void’ with no binding force.
Trinidad added that the recent development would not likely provoke the Duterte administration into military action, noting how the new CEO of the land had always talked about reopening dialogue with China on this maritime issue.
And after Mr. Duterte’s decisive poll victory last May, the economist noted that China’s ambassador was among the first in the diplomatic community to acknowledge the incoming President.
“While the tribunal’s decision is neutral to market sentiment, the long journey to finding a lasting settlement to maritime border claims has just begun,” Trinidad said.
Trinidad said the tribunal’s decision had also posed an indirect challenge to the Duterte administration to insulate bilateral trade ties with China, which is among the Philippines’ top five export markets.
“Starting the China dialogue on the maritime issue helps insulate bilateral trade and commercial activities with China from any political repercussions,” he said.
Exports to China accounted for 10.1 percent of total receipts as of May while imports accounted for 16.8 percent.
The country’s exports to China fell by 15.6 percent year-on-year for the January to May period while China enjoyed a bilateral trade surplus amounting to $6.6 billion on a 12-month trailing sum, equivalent to 40 percent of the Philippine trade gap.
