Strong consumer confidence awaits Duterte gov’t

THE INCOMING administration of President-elect Rodrigo Duterte will be welcomed by strong consumer confidence, thanks to the economic achievements of the Aquino presidency, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey showed the consumer index (CI) measuring optimism for the next 12 months improved to 26.6 percent from 25.4 percent a quarter ago.

“For the year ahead, consumers attributed their more optimistic outlook to the change in administration as well as the election of new government officials, expected improvements in the peace and order situations, and availability of more jobs, both local and abroad,” said Teresita B. Deveza, deputy director at the BSP’s department of economic statistics.

Since the survey was held on April 4-16 or ahead of the May 9 elections, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said that, in general, the more bullish outlook was not specific to the incoming Duterte administration. He said it helped the economy was in a better shape in recent years.

With an economy sustaining growth since 1999, Guinigundo said market confidence has already been on a high such that households have become more bullish about prospects ahead, including those from the incoming administration.

The highest CI achieved was 33.4 percent, posted in the third quarter of 2010 or right after the elections that catapulted President Aquino to power.

The CI for the present second quarter, however, slid marginally to negative 5.7 percent from negative 6.4 percent in the first quarter. Still, this is the second highest reading since the survey was first conducted in 2007.

The negative CI for the current quarter meant the pessimists outnumbered the optimists for the April to June period.

The “sustained outlook” reflected by the second-quarter CI was attributed by respondents to an increase in the number of employed family members, increasing family income due to higher salary and stronger business activity, lower household expenses and debt payments, as well as improvement in the peace and order situation, Deveza said.

Negative sentiment in the second quarter, meanwhile, mainly came from poor harvest as a result of the adverse effects of the prolonged dry spell, or the El Niño phenomenon, on crop production.

The CI for the incoming third quarter turned positive at 5.6 percent, although also lower than the reading of 9.1 percent during the previous quarter’s survey.