11% drop in coconut oil exports forecast

PHILIPPINE exports of coconut oil are expected to fall by 11 percent this year as the dry conditions caused by the strong El Niño prove too much for the relatively resilient trees.

According to the United Coconut Associations of the Philippines (Ucap), shipments in 2016 were expected to slide down to 750,000 tons from about 840,000 tons last year.

This will pull down overall exports of coconut-based products, which Ucap estimated at 2.3 million tons, also a drop of 11 percent.

“Coconut areas last year experienced significant rainfall deficits,” Ucap said, adding that rain gauge readings in 2015 were even lower than what was recorded in 2014 when there was no El Niño yet.

The group cited data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) showing that in coconut-producing regions, the average monthly rainfall were below normal.

This update was a swing away from a previous Ucap statement, which said last November that a prolonged dry spell was expected to have minimal impact on domestic production.

Back then when typhoons one after another were ravaging other major crops across the country, the group said a major rainfall could easily mitigate the impact of El Niño on crops, which were “very resilient” to a lack of moisture.

According to Ucap, a dry spell or rainfall under 50 millimeters needed to have been prevailing for four straight months if it would have an adverse effect on   coconut. Still, the group had hinted on anticipating concern, saying that it was observing areas where coconut trees may have been feeling the effects of El Niño.

Primary data from Ucap showed that, in 2015, outbound shipments of coconut oil decreased by 1.5 percent to 843,710 tons. In December alone, Ucap said the picture was better as overall exports nearly doubled to 107,827 tons in copra terms from 55,994 tons in the same month of 2014. However, December exports was 14.5-percent lower than the monthly average of 126,120 tons.

December exports of coconut oil doubled to 28,304 tons. Europe was the top destination for shipments, cornering more than half or 58 percent of the volume.

The United States bought 36 percent of coconut exports while Japan took the remaining 6 percent.