AMERICAN climate experts have raised the possibility that the strong El Niño could swing toward La Niña and the attendant excessively wet conditions toward yearend, after dissipating toward midyear.
“Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to neutral [no El Niño nor La Niña] during the late spring or early summer 2016,” according to the Unites States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into (autumn),” the NOAA added in its latest monthly update.
The agency said indications of a strong El Niño prevail, including sea surface temperatures that are more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
Below the surface of the Pacific, especially in the central and eastern part of the ocean, temperatures increased in January but weakened again toward the end of the month.
This happened as colder-than-average temperatures in deeper waters moved toward the central Pacific, the NOAA said.
Moreover, winds blowing against their usual directions are still being observed in the tropics.
“Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño,” the NOAA said.
The Maryland-based agency added that “while there is both (forecast) model and physical support for La Niña following the strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains.”
“ A transition to (neutral) is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall,” it added.