THE LOCAL stock market reopens today after a long New Year’s holiday break.
For 2015, the Philippine Stock Exchange index ended on a bearish note for the first time in six years, declining by 278.49 points or 3.85 percent to close at 6,952.08.
The market reopens to a new year with lingering concerns on China’s economic slowdown and the start of the US interest rate tightening cycle, alongside escalating political noise ahead of the May 2016 presidential elections.
On global themes for this year, CLSA’s top analysts, strategists and economists see 2016 to be a “year of surprises.” Among CLSA’s key predictions are:
As the US Federal Reserve starts to tighten, this will put stress to the financial system, leading to renewed quantitative easing;
Despite an anemic start, global trade may pick up to over 4 percent year-on-year by end- 2016 as buying power returns to emerging economies; and,
The US, Europe and Asia are poised for synchronized growth by end-2016, for the first time since 2010.
On the foreign exchange front, CLSA sees the US dollar to remain on an uptrend but will have pullbacks. The renminbi is seen to depreciate but not by more than 5 percent against the US dollar, and to remain firm against a basket of currencies. Doris Dumlao-Abadilla