Climate change’s impact on Southeast Asia, which is already among the most vulnerable regions in the world to rising global temperatures, might be worse than previously estimated, a new research released on Monday showed.
In a briefing note, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said the institution’s own 2009 study might have been way off in measuring the potential damage of rising greenhouse gases to the region.
Economic losses from the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia could be 60-percent higher than previously estimated, reducing the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 11 percent by 2100, according to a new report.
The analysis is an update to a 2009 ADB report that estimated a 7-percent annual reduction in economic output due to climate change.
“Economic costs of not reining in greenhouse gas emissions are more serious than we previously estimated,” said ADB chief economist Shang-Jin Wei.
“At the same time, this new study also shows that reducing emissions and stabilizing the climate will produce benefits and avoid losses for Southeast Asia, which in the long run sharply outweigh the costs of action,” he said.
The study looks at the economic impact of climate change across a range of scenarios, including one referred to as “business-as-usual.” Another sees countries take steps to limit their greenhouse gas emissions to keep temperatures from rising.
ADB, which is based in Manila, said that by retaining existing energy use patterns, which include fast growing use of coal and oil, greenhouse gases emissions are likely to be 60 percent higher in 2050 than in 2010.