Global rice output forecast slashed anew

THE FORECAST global rice output for the crop year July 2015-June 2016 was further cut down by 8 million tons to 493 million tons, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Based on the latest monthly Market Monitor report of the Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), the “substantial reduction” was due to worsening prospects in Asia, especially for India and Thailand.

The FAO-administered inter-agency body said that rice-growing conditions in India were close to average while those in Thailand remained mixed due to lack of rain.

“Rice conditions remain mixed in part due to the current El Niño affecting large parts of Asia, though some areas have improved owing to recent rains,” the Amis said.

The report added that in the Philippines, the harvest of the wet season crop was almost complete and that—through the cropping season—there was concern over heavy rainfall in the southern regions and about over-dryness attributed to El Niño affecting the northern regions.

The dry conditions in the Philippines were expected to intensify in October and persist until the first quarter of 2016, the Amis said.

“The current El Niño is forecast to remain in the strong category through the end of the southern hemisphere growing season and into early northern hemisphere summer 2016,” the report said. “This strength means that the forecast rainfall and temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño event have high probabilities of occurrence.”

Currently, drier-than-average conditions are forecast to continue in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.

“If this El Niño follows similar historic patterns, it may make a transition quickly to La Niña, which will bring new patterns of anomalous rainfall and temperature, many of which are opposite to those of El Niño,” Amis said.

Still, the FAO said in its Food Outlook report that global food prices were staying lower for longer periods, brushing away memories of price spikes seen in 2007 up to early 2011.