Commercial rice imports seen falling

THE VOLUME of private sector importation of milled rice in the harvest year July 2015-June 2016 is expected to fall by 24 percent, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Based on the FAO’s latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, commercial rice imports over the next 12 months were expected at 3.97 million tons, down from the previous level of 5.2 million tons.

The United Nations agency said that, in the Far East subregion, aggregate importation of cereal—including rice—during the current marketing year was expected to decrease slightly from year-ago level.

“The expected decrease in imports mainly reflects lower forecasts for maize and barley in China, which are foreseen to fall by 25 percent and 13 percent, respectively, from last year’s record level, owing to anticipated bumper harvests and large carryover stocks,” the 40-page report said.

“Similarly, rice imports are expected to decrease by 3 percent to 11.6 million tons,” it added.

The FAO noted that over northern and southern Asia, rains have been generally favorable to planting activities for the main season crops.

However, several countries, including the Philippines, experienced well below-average precipitation, which has led to severe shortage of soil moisture in some areas.

“The current dry weather may be attributed to the development of the El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with reduced rains in southeast Asia,” the agency said.

Among the different climate prediction models that experts use, the consensus indicates that the current moderate El Niño phenomenon may strengthen further in the second half of this and possibly into the winter months of 2016.

“However, no precise quantitative association between the occurrence of El Niño and its impact on agricultural production can be deduced,” the FAO said. “Its impact on crops very much depends on the timing and intensity of the phenomenon.”

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the Philippines’ stock of milled rice increased to 3.17 million tons as of May 1.

The national reserve—which increased by about a quarter or 630,000 tons over the previous month—was good for 93 days’ consumption, up from 75 days a month before.

As of May 1, the NFA’s stock was good for 18 days’ consumption, unusually rising three days over its minimum mandated volume of 15 days’ supply. Ronnel W. Domingo