‘Earthquake-proofing’ developments, values

Recent reports of a strong earthquake possibly hitting Metro Manila within this lifetime have stoked fears in the country anew.

And understandably so for based on the handbook released by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology in May, the 100-kilometer West Valley fault could produce a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that could kill 37,000 people in an instant, injure 604,000 persons and cause an estimated damage of P2.4 trillion to buildings.

But if there is anything good that has come out of all these, it is the fact that it had prompted the government and the private sector, particularly real estate developers, to spring into action and further beef up their preparations to help mitigate the potentially catastrophic impact of the “Big One.” At the same time, all these reports and discussions about the “Big One” have resulted in increased public awareness of the risks the country is facing and consciousness on the need to boost safety measures to help curb the devastating effects of a strong earthquake.

Renowned architect and urban planner Felino “Jun” Palafox Jr. stated the obvious: “While there are efforts on the part of the government, the Philippines remained largely unprepared for such an eventuality, with many of the country’s bridges and old buildings needing reinforcements and retrofitting to withstand such a strong force. ”

Palafox further scored the poor urban planning in Metro Manila, as he pointed out that there were a number of structures that were built on or near the fault lines, posing serious hazards to both life and property. Add to that is the lack of the necessary facilities such as emergency clinics, water stations, food stations, shelters, and telecom command centers, that are all critical in case of a strong earthquake.

On a more positive note, however, Palafox said many of the country’s biggest real estate developers had been strictly following building codes and other pertinent laws that would ensure the integrity of their developments. A few of these companies, Palafox said, had even gone beyond the Philippine building code, “borrowing” international standards to ensure the safety aspect of their respective projects.

Property values

Efforts of  these local property developers to somehow “earthquake-proof” their developments seem to be paying off, earning for them the confidence of the market. The lingering fears and threats of a strong earthquake have, so far, done little to affect the value or prices of property in Metro Manila, according to real estate consultancy firms Cushman & Wakefield Philippines Inc. and Jones Lang LaSalle Philippines Inc. (JLL).

“We do not see yet any significant effects on prices and/or take-up in the property sector after the West Valley Fault Atlas was recently released by Phivolcs. The news, however, has raised awareness regarding safety, construction practices, as well as disaster-responsive property management, which are beneficial and useful to the buyers and all of us residing or working in the metropolis,” noted Claro Cordero Jr., head of research, consulting and valuation at Jones Lang LaSalle.

Janlo de los Reyes, manager for research and consultancy at Cushman & Wakefield, shared a similar view, noting that while recent reports created some concerns, these had not significantly affected the property market to the extent that it would drive away potential investors or occupiers. Take-up of office buildings, for example, have remained healthy as seen in the high occupancy rates in various developments across the different Metro Manila districts.

A positive development though was the increased consciousness of the market of the need to check the safety features of the property or the buildings.

Arya Residences
The selection of the site was given utmost primacy to ensure that project location would be nowhere near the fault lines, according to property developer Arthaland.

“Some occupiers would request certifications or seismic risk hazard documents to assess the safeness of their targeted site while others have set up their business continuity sites outside these risk areas. The effect is much more visible, and significant to a certain extent, in the residential market where buyers are becoming more discerning of the location of the property they wish to rent or buy,” De los Reyes said.

Disaster preparedness

Key to ensuring resilience against natural calamities, according to both consultancy firms, is the concerted effort among the government, private sector and the general public to implement the necessary disaster preparedness initiatives and programs, including the enforcement of stricter laws pertaining to constructions, and the possible amendment of the existing code.

“In terms of earthquake resilience, Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces, its authorities and residents need to work hand in hand to speed up the disaster preparedness and recovery planning efforts. One of the initiatives being undertaken is the metrowide drill that the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) is organizing on July 30. This drill will be a good assessment tool on how the metropolis reacts to real calamities like an earthquake. It is an initiative that we, as professional property managers, are supporting and attending together with our clients,” said Gerard Dizon, head of asset management at Jones Lang LaSalle.

“But we cannot totally rely on the government for our safety in such events; disaster and recovery planning should start within our homes, at schools of our children, and at our place of work.  A technical audit of critical structures within Greater Metro Manila should also be prioritized,” Dizon said.

De los Reyes stressed the need to amend the existing building code and related laws and issuances as these are already “outdated and unresponsive to what is happening in the country.”

“New high-rise buildings by major developers are constructed above standards and should be able to withstand intensity 8 or 9 earthquakes. There would be concerns though with the integrity of older buildings and low- and mid-rise buildings by small realty firms which may not be structurally compliant. Aside from amendments and formulating disaster plans, it is equally important to have strict implementation of these guidelines. It would also help to equip the relevant government employees with the technical skills to be able to effectively perform their tasks and duties,” De los Reyes said.

Developers’ efforts

For many property developers, earthquake-proofing their projects has long been a norm, even before the West Valley Fault Atlas was released by Phivolcs.

The Lopez-led Rockwell Land Inc., for instance, had its structures built to withstand an intensity 9 earthquake, which was beyond what was mandated under Philippine laws. Buildings that are designed and built in accordance with the existing National Building Code are supposed to be able to withstand an intensity 8 earthquake.

“Rockwell is very conservative when it comes to compliance and building standards. We design our developments with advance techniques like the Performance Based Design used in Proscenium. Our buildings are designed against the worst earthquake that has occurred over the past decade. To ensure safety for existing residences, we conduct annual earthquake drills and inspections for each building’s structural integrity,” explained Rockwell Land AVP for marketing, Vienn C. Tionglico-Guzman.

Edgar V. Sabidong, AVP for project management at ArthaLand Corp., noted that in their case, the selection of the site was given utmost primacy to ensure that project location would be nowhere near the fault lines. The company also made sure to revisit all the necessary seismic details and structural elements to secure the building’s integrity.

Members of the ArthaLand team, Sabidong further claimed, were also seasoned and experienced people with solid track records in real estate developments, construction methodologies, and safety practices.

Another property developer further claimed that the designs of its buildings were fully compliant with the existing building codes, which called for structures to be designed against earthquakes up to magnitude 8. And while there are no specific earthquake resistant materials, the structural system of its buildings had been designed to perform against earthquakes.