Australian climate experts on Tuesday said the El Niño phenomenon continued to strengthen in the runup to the yearend when the weather condition traditionally reaches its worst.
“Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest climate advisory, referring to the area of the Pacific where typhoons that affect the Philippines originate.
The agency added that the international climate models it surveyed showed hints that “further consolidation is likely.”
Until a few weeks ago, the Australian BoM and other major climate prediction agencies—such as those of the United States and Japan—did not agree on whether the El Niño was already occurring.
“El Niño events typically strengthen during the second half of the year, reaching full strength during late spring or early summer (autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere),” the BoM said, “It is not possible at this stage to determine how strong this El Niño will be.”
Earlier this month, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) jacked up the probability of the El Niño continuing through the “ber” months to at least 90 percent from 80 percent in their May forecast.