PHILIPPINE output of palay is now expected to have reached 4.47 million tons in the first quarter, improving by 100,000 tons from the previous month’s forecast, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
The latest estimate is 1.7 million tons more than the 4.3 million tons harvest in the first quarter of 2014.
However, the PSA said the forecast—which is updated monthly—was still 1.3 million tons lower than the 4.59 million tons that the government had hoped for.
The agency said the lower expected output was due to the possible decrease in both harvest area and farm yield.
“Harvest area may contract from 1.17 million hectares to 1.16 million hectares while yield may decrease from 3.93 metric tons per hectare to 3.85 MT per hectare,” the PSA said in a report.
These “could be the result of damages brought about by Typhoons ‘Seniang’ in Capiz and Negros Occidental last December and ‘Amang’ in Camarines Sur last January,” it added.
Further, the PSA said the drop in yield may be driven by lesser supply of water as well as intense heat experienced in Iloilo, Tarlac, Camarines Sur, South Cotabato and Aklan.
“The incidence of stemborer [pest] in Sultan Kudarat and South Cotabato, may contribute to lower production,” the PSA said.
Also blamed were strong winds that affected crops in Quezon and Sultan Kudarat, and flashfloods in North Cotabato.
“[S]ome areas left unharvested in Maguindanao due to peace and order situation may result in lower outputs,” the PSA added.
Last week, the PSA also reported that the Philippines’ rice reserve waned for the third month in a row to cover 67 days’ worth of consumption as of March 1, two days less than a month before.
The stock of milled rice slid down to 2.27 million tons from 2.35 million tons last Feb. 1 as the country’s farmlands brace for the year’s hottest months.
The National Food Authority’s stock of milled rice climbed continually to reach 550,000 tons from 530,000 tons previously.
The NFA’s reserve is 96 percent imported, and the state agency is awaiting more shipments from Thailand and Vietnam following a government-to-government bidding held last month.