Gone in 15 seconds
“Gone in 15 seconds” is an expression widely used to describe how quickly situations can change.
The expression seemed to have been based on how long it takes for a cheetah to literally take down an impala, and dramatically alter in just 15 seconds the otherwise idyllic life of the poor animal.
Last Friday, I was reminded again of how fast things can change, thanks to the grim video aired on television that showed how two people died and another person hospitalized after drinking tainted milk tea in a shop in Sampaloc, Manila.
Killed in seconds were the female companion of the hospitalized man and the owner of the milk tea house.
The male customer actually sipped first but he immediately spat out the drink, complaining that it did not taste good.
The female also sipped her drink but she swallowed the liquid instead of spitting it out like what her companion did.
At about the same time, the owner had a taste of the milk tea being served to the customers.
Due to some poison in the drink, both the owner and the female customer were “gone in 15 seconds,” as the saying goes.
The incident got me unsettled over the weekend, and it also got me thinking about how fortunes in the market can also change dramatically and quickly.
Of the record highs
On Tuesday, April 7, right after Holy Week, the PSEi again climbed to another all-time intraday high of 8,136.97.
The trading session, however, ended with the market settling at 8.098.68, with a daily gain of 44.94 points or 0.56 percent.
This intraday record high seemed to be the result of the attempt of market makers to drive up the market the week before to test it if it can still go up.
You saw this attempt when the market hit an earlier intraday high of 8,007.98 on March 30.
But due to the impending long weekend in connection with the observance of the Holy week, they must have postponed the attempt and took the long weekend vacation instead.
And due to another holiday—the observance of the Araw Ng Kagitingan last April 9, Thursday—the attempt seemed to have again been abandoned.
The market fell last Wednesday. In the process, market bears (sellers) ruled the market and profit-taking took place.
The market closed lower on Wednesday to 8,052.69, and ended with a daily loss of 45.99 points or 0.57 percent.
Market markers, however, did not let the opportunity to pass before the weekend.
Upon the resumption of trading last Friday, the market closed with the biggest daily gain for the week of 74.79 points or 0.93 percent.
To top it, the market ended the week with a higher weekly gain again compared with the previous week. It ended with a total gain of 134.39 points or 1.68 percent versus that of the other week of 115.13 points or 1.46 percent.
More importantly, the market’s close for the week at 8,127.48 was another record high for the market.
Bottom line spin
The number of new record highs established and the ease at which the market has been able to break them since the start of the year provide the main evidence of its strength and power.
However, a simple review of the latest changes in the situation of the other indicators of the market such as the total amount and percentage participation of foreign investors in the market, along with the movements of the different sectors of the market, seem to show signs that could otherwise belie the market’s current strong situation.
At the time the market hit the intraday high of 8,136.97 last Tuesday, foreign investors were net buyers with their total transactions amounted to 48.37 percent of the market’s total value turnover.
Their participation increased to 53.57 percent the following day, Wednesday.
Surprisingly, this increase in total market participation did not drive up the market as it usually did.
Instead, the market fell with a daily loss of 45.99 points or 0.57 percent.
Looking more closely at the buying and selling activities of foreign investors, figures show they sold more than they bought that day.
This may explain the selloff that took place on Wednesday. It must have been triggered by foreign investors’ profit-taking activities.
Another source of worry and concern that could change the outcome of the market’s current strong situation was last Friday’s trading results.
While the market ended with a big daily gain of 74.79 points or 0.93 percent and foreign investors’ participation increased to 60.57 percent, they were net sellers for the day.
With these results, it looks like it was the locals more than the foreign investors who supported the market to advance last Friday, for the latter were net sellers.
And if we try to extrapolate the implications of their market participation to their latest trading major activity, it seems they are selling out of the market—contrary to popular prognosis on what they may again do this week.
Meanwhile, out of the six sectors of the market, the mining and oil sector was joined by the industrial sector with a loss last week.
Should other sectors follow this week, complicated by the impact of what foreign market analysts describe as “not-so positive but also not-so-negative” market developments in the United States and elsewhere, there is a good possibility the current strong outlook of the market may just change and be “gone in 15 seconds.”
(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities, Inc.. You may reach the Market Rider at [email protected] , [email protected] or at www.kapitaltek.com)
