CLIMATE experts still cannot say how strong the current occurrence of the El Niño weather disturbance may turn out to be, but they think it will likely extend until the latter part of this year.
Based on the latest advisory from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), conditions that point to warmer-than-average temperate of the sea surface in the tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean “have strengthened a bit” in March, compared to February.
“At this time, there is also considerable uncertainty as to how strong this event may become,” the US agency said. “There is an approximately 70 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60 percent chance it will last through autumn.”
In a previous advisory published in early March, the US agency said the weather disturbance had already begun, although it described it to be weak, with the effects considered to be insignificant.
In an official blog post, Emily Becker—a research scientist with the Noaa’s Climate Prediction Center—said it was way too early to know with full confidence whether the El Niño would be strong or if it would even continue into winter.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter season is when El Niño usually displays is strongest influence on the patterns of rain and temperature worldwide.
For the phenomenon to continue through winter, “the atmospheric (conditions that we are now observing) would need to continue, especially the persistence of westerly wind anomalies, which we did not see last year,” Becker wrote.
Last month, the National Irrigation Administration said the country’s supply of impounded water would be enough to address local farmers’ irrigation needs over the next two months, which is usually the hottest period of the year.
Florencio F. Padernal, administrator of the NIA, said water levels in all major irrigation dams were above the critical level and that supply would be good up to the end of May.
Also, the NIA chief noted that the agency expected minimal release of dam water for irrigation because most farmers who till irrigated rice farms were already done with the season’s harvest.
For its part, the Department of Agriculture is pumping up small-scale irrigation initiatives, especially for rice and corn farms.
According to the Department of Agriculture, the move is part of its preparations for the summer months and will complement similar projects of the NIA.
Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala said the DA’s small-scale irrigation systems or SWIS—being provided through the National Rice Program (NRP) as well as the Bureau of Soils and Water Management—were also part of the agency’s effort to keep the agriculture sector resilient enough to withstand the effects of climate change.