Market challenges

Is it too late for me to enter the market now? What are the chances of stock prices from going down or going up higher? Will I still be able to make money at current prices? Will there be more good stock plays to come because the economy continues to look good?

Many say the economy could easily sustain its impressive growth rate for the next 10 years, with the best yet to come: Can we possibly have across-the-board price run-ups over the period?

These are but a few of the many related questions I have been asked lately. I hope the following thoughts could address them.

Price path

We are now on the sixth year of our bull market. This situation alone renders the proposition of making more money a very difficult challenge. This could be the reason why, according to some observations, the market has been unable to hold higher territories,  much less break out from established highs as far back as last year.

Looking more closely, the market had been successfully advancing in small steps. The market’s trading close last Friday of 7,818.38 is actually the market’s highest close in the last six years of advance. The market was enjoying a bull run when it was hit by the US subprime crises. It went on a free fall until August 2008, along with other equity markets of the world.

The market made small strides until August 2009 when it climbed back to its bull run high of 2007. It was not until November 2009 when the market, together with the rest of the world, appeared to have fully recovered.  By then, the market broke 3,000 and was higher by 65.7 percent.

The market zoomed higher and hit another milestone in 2010: It breached 4,000 at the end of September at 4,100.07, up 1,075.74 points or 35.57 percent. By the close of trading in December 2010, the market was up 2,373.22 points or 130.03 percent from where the market was at the beginning of 2009.

The market went into consolidation in 2011. But its advance gathered speed and strength in 2012. Within the year, the market gained 1,440.77 points or 32.95 percent at 5,812.73. This also makes the market 3,987.64 points or 118.49 percent up from where it started in 2009.

In 2013, the market broke two milestones: It entered the 6,000 territory in January and proceeded to close at 7,080.99 by the end of April. In the next three months that followed, however, the market lost steam and was again back at 6,075.17 by the close of trading on Aug. 30. It proceeded to trade within a 500-point band until it closed at 5,889.83 at end the year.

It was in 2013 that one would have been hit with a double whammy of losses or favored with a streak of winning trading plays. It critically brought the market to an equilibrium point—as in whether to tank or float to rise higher.

The market’s upward direction remained intact that in 2014, it proceeded to advance and reclaim the 7,000 level at the same time established a series of record highs. When it closed at 7,050.89 on Aug. 28, the market remained within the 7,000 level until the close of trading for the year; it closed at 7,265.36 in September, 7,215.73 in October, 7,294.78 in November and 7,230.57 in December.

By the end of 2014, the market made another gain of 1,340.74 points or 22.76 percent. Added to the gains accumulated from the beginning of 2009, the market has made a total gain of 5,405.48 points or 196.18 percent.

If we add up the market’s gain from the beginning of 2015 up to last Friday’s closing index of 7.818.38, the market gained another 587.81 points or 8.13 percent. This additional gain now brings the market’s advance from the beginning of 2009 to 5,993.29 points or 228.38 percent.

Bottom line spin

Just last week, Fitch Ratings kept its investment-grade rating for the Philippines “owing to the country’s robust economic performance and healthy external finances.” It maintained a “stable” outlook on the country’s assigned credit rating of “BBB-.”

The Philippines is also said to have a “prudent monetary policy and effective supervision of banks and other financial institutions.” Along with improvements in its inflation rate, the Philippine economy is seen to have a better macroeconomic data compared to most of its neighbors. It could easily attract additional investments for production and developmental activities.

Concomitantly, while the global issues and factors that have been critically affecting trading sentiments and market outlook worldwide, the country has been relatively free of any direct link that may adversely affect the country’s economic advance.

All these guarantee a robust stock market and a further increase in stock prices. Respective increases in prices, however, may vary from one stock to another depending on what sector they are in. In this connection, as the country’s continued economic growth would certainly augur well for a continued bull market, it would not necessarily translate into an across-the-board market run-up.

Nevertheless, expect more stock plays in all of the subsectors of the market as most of them are yet to outperform.

(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities, Inc.  You may reach the Market Rider at [email protected] , [email protected] or at www.kapitaltek.com)