Philippine exports are expected to have declined for the third month in a row in July on lackluster business in the electronics sector, according to the DBS Group.
The Singapore-based group said in a research note issued Monday that the downtrend in outbound trade is expected to continue until November due to sluggish demand for semiconductors in North America.
“The export number for July (due on Tuesday) is likely to disappoint again, registering negative growth of 6.8 percent year on year,” the paper said.
Data from the National Statistics Office showed that exports dropped by 3.1 percent in May and 10.2 percent in June.
The gathering downward momentum followed 18 consecutive months of growth, the past 17 of which showed double-digit expansion.
“The weak export number [in July] can be attributed to the underperformance of electronics exports over the last few months,” DBS said.
“With the North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio dipping lower to 0.86 in July, the outlook for Philippine exports is still cloudy,” it added. “Total outbound shipments will register minimal growth this year.”
Malacañang originally set an exports growth target of 13 percent this year, but experts from both the government and the private sector believe even 10 percent will be difficult to achieve considering the global economic situation.