Critical events to break 8,000
When I think of critical events that may have significant impact on the market this week, I’m reminded of the Oriental concept of yin and yang, commonly known as “good and bad” as they apparently appear as contrary forces. However, the opposite nature of yin and yang metaphysically are considered “actually complementary and interdependent, as they give rise to one another like night and day, male and female, and fire and water.”
We have some “good and bad events” that will make up this week’s market. We’ll observe the celebration of the Chinese New Year—a much-awaited event that usually augers well in the market. Opposite events that could create volatility in the market this week are overseas geopolitical concerns, the most critical of which is the Ukraine ceasefire situation. Similar agreements have failed in the past. As such, the situation in Ukraine may stay more volatile and deadly that will certainly drive away investors out of the market as things turn bad.
Another event that may support to the market’s positive outlook is the ongoing rally on Wall Street on the back of strong fourth-quarter US company earnings and signs of an overall improving US economy, together with the felt bottoming out of oil prices. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 hit its “highest close of the year—nearly above its Dec. 29 record.” The Nasdaq, also “hit a 15-year high.” Their climb continued on Friday with the Dow Jones industrial average, “reaching its highest point so far this year.”
One more event that may, again, roil markets like ours as it did in the past is about the refinancing of Greece, whose bailout program is to expire on Feb. 28. If a final agreement is not reached as targeted, the Greek debt situation will continue to be a market spoiler.
Chinese New Year trivia
According to Chinese astrology, “each animal zodiac has its own lucky numbers and days, lucky colors, lucky flowers and best direction.” Being the Year of the Goat, Ram or Sheep, as it is sometimes referred to, the lucky numbers are “2” and “7.” This may include the numbers “27” and “72.” Considered unlucky numbers at this time will be the numbers “6” and “8.”
The lucky days will be the “17th and 30th” of any month of the Chinese lunar calendar. The year’s lucky colors are “brown, red and purple.” The colors “green, blue and black” are to be avoided at this time. Goat people are advised not to wear these colors. Lucky flowers for the year are carnation and primroses. And Goat people’s lucky direction this year is “north.” In the meanwhile, “southwest” is considered the unlucky direction.
Considered worst lunar months are the “third, sixth and 10th.” Goat people are advised not to make important business plans and events at these times. Like the 11 other animals of the Chinese zodiac, the Year of the Goat is associated with one of the five elements. These are “gold (metal), wood, water, fire or earth.”
With the last 60 years as a reference, this year is called the “Wood Goat” together with the year 1955. Wood Goat people are described as amiable, gentle and compassionate. Next is the “Fire Goat.” This covers the year 1907 and 1967. Those born under this sign are said to be amicable, frank and honest. They are as well “known to making everything clean and tidy.”
Bottom-line spin
Contrary to popular forecast, the market failed to break 8,000 last week. It had to struggle to close at 7,773.45 in order to make just a weekly gain of 45.27 points, or 1.29 percent. The market’s rally in the last two days was not strong enough that it ended with a net weekly gain of only 45.27 points or 1.29 percent. Foreign investors were again net buyers for the week. Their market participation also continued to increase, rising to 56.86 percent from the other week’s 46.95 percent.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported on Friday that foreign portfolio investments grew due to “higher investments in the PSE.” The BSP added that the investments made were in the holding firms, banks, property, food, beverage, tobacco and utilities. This is why some stocks in said categories have been in the top 30 gainers, as I have been reporting in the past three weeks.
The same foregoing yin and yang elements that affected the market last week will continue to play out this week. Along with previous experience on the occasion of the celebration of the Chinese New Year, investors may focus more on positive leads that the market may again try to break out from the 8,000 level.
(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities, Inc. You may reach the Market Rider at [email protected], [email protected] or at www.kapitaltek.com.)
