Recipe for success in 2015

According to the Chinese fortune calendar, 2015 is the Year of the Sheep. It’s because it falls under the 8th sign of the 12 animals assigned in the Chinese zodiac system such as: rat, cow, tiger, dragon, snake, horse, sheep (or goat or ram), monkey, chicken (or rooster), dog and pig.

The first day of the Chinese lunar calendar starts at 12 noon on Feb. 4 under China Standard Time. This is 20:00 (8 p.m.) on Feb. 3 of the US Pacific Standard Time.

The Year of the Sheep will start at the time of the new moon of the first lunar month. This will fall on Feb. 19, when the Chinese New Year 2015 will be celebrated.

The sheep is said to represent the elements of “wood, fire and earth” following the theory of the five elements, namely metal (sometimes referred to as gold), water, wood, fire and earth. It is supported by the notion about the sheep as a farmland animal. It eats grass that grows from the earth which, in turn, is also the source of wood.

The year of the sheep is the last year of the “fire” cycle—composed of the years of the snake and horse, the 6th and 7th animals in the Chinese zodiac system.

In view of these, 2015 is referred to as the “Year of the Green Wooden Sheep.”

Those who had good fortune in first two years of the fire cycle—the year of the snake (2013) and horse (2014), your luck in 2015 will continue, according to the soothsaying.

Because it is between the elements of “fire” and “metal,” 2015 will also become the turning point in the fortunes of the many. This covers even those who have been lucky in 2013 and 2014, for while their good fortune is seen to continue, they will “still need to prepare and adjust strategies to maintain the level of their achievements.”

This also means 2015 can become auspicious to those who had been out of luck in the last two years. They will “have the chance to create a new future,” for the sheep has the element of the “female earth and wood” (or seed) which allows growth and creativity to prosper.

New approaches

But all these boil down to the obvious principle of devising new approaches to succeed or attain higher levels of success. The advice is addressed to both of those who have been lucky and those “out of luck” in the last two years of the fire cycle.

Creating new strategies and stock positions at this time makes very good sense. This is in addition to the fact that most of those who may have sold out last month were not able to buy back and reposition themselves at this time.

Data from the latest list of top price gainers confirmed this supposition. It showed that it was difficult for anyone to buy back just then.

For instance, Metro Pacific Investment Corp. at its last traded price of P4.60 a piece seemed to have gained 3.37 percent for the week. When the last traded price is compared to MPI’s price performance in the last four weeks, it was actually down 5.93 percent.

Del Monte Pacific Ltd. showed a gain of 3.51 percent with its last traded price of P15.48 per share. Compared to its price performance in the last four weeks, it is down 6.63 percent.

Deemed good indicators of the health of the property sector, Robinsons Land Corp. and Century Properties Group posted gains for the week of 4.95 and 3.26 percent, respectively. In the last four weeks, their prices are down 0.75 and 6.86 percent.

Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc. was an exception. It was the second-highest gainer for the week with a gain of 11.80 percent. Its last traded price was also 9.92 percent up from its price performance in the last four weeks.

VLL had been thinly traded during the year. As one of the few property stocks with big foreign investors’ participation, it’s probable that its recent price spike could be a result of window dressing.

Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corp. is another. Recently active due to disclosed plans to open within the first quarter, it gained 3.51 percent from its last traded price of P13.58 per share but it was down 2.30 percent from its price performance in the last four weeks.

Bottom-line spin

From its closing index of 4,199.31 on Dec. 29, 2010, up to its closing index of 4,371.96 on Dec. 29, 2011, the market made a total net advance of 4.11 percent.

This improved to 11.86 percent in the next 12 months from 4,371.96 on Dec. 29, 2011, to 5,812.73 on Dec. 28, 2012. In the following 12 months, the rate of advance slowed to 1.32 percent as the market closed at 5,889.93 on Dec. 28, 2013. The market recovered in the following 12 months and posted a rate of return of 22.76 percent—the market closed at 7,230.57 when it wrapped up business last Dec. 29.

It is also observed that in the alternating sequence of increase and decrease of growth rates in the last four years, a slowdown in the market’s performance appears imminent in 2015.

The swing of market prices during the four-year period also shows that realigning one’s stock position at least twice a year may have produced optimum returns. Realigning once a year, like every January, still yields profitable returns of about 10 percent per year.

Interestingly, notice that if you made no movement or realigning in the four year period—from the start of 2011 up to the end of December 2014—the rate of return added up to a total gain of 136.97 percent.

The foregoing methods were but a crude way of showing the real average rate of return of the market in the past four years. But it is enough to prove that long-term investing pays and that it is better to put your money in stocks in the market’s main index.

The recipe for success in 2015, however, does not end there. Luck plays a significant part in one’s fortune. Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu, in his widely read text called the Tao Te Ching, recognized the significance of luck when he said, “Shallow men believe in cause and effect.” It asserts that reliance on pure science is not complete.

(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities Inc. You may reach Market Rider at [email protected] , [email protected] or at www.kapitaltek.com)