Neda: 7-8% growth goal in 2015 still ‘doable’

The 7-8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) expansion target for 2015 is “doable,” as manufacturing, tourism and election spending are expected to bolster growth, according to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan.

“In 2015, the sectors expected to continue as main engines of medium-term growth are industry, construction and logistics, and tourism,” Balisacan, who is also the director general of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), told reporters last week.

In the industry sector, manufacturing growth is projected to become more robust as more brick-and-mortar foreign direct investments (FDI) are poured into the country.

“We still have among the lowest FDI levels in Asean, but lately we’re growing fast,” Balisacan noted.

As for tourism, the Neda chief said that the Philippines’ hosting of the 2015 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit would augur well for the sector. “Tourism will further pick up next year.”

Spending, especially by the private sector, would also continue to drive more economic activity, he said.

In particular, election spending by aspirants for elective government positions would start contributing to the economy as early as next year, according to Balisacan.

Historically, a higher GDP growth gets posted during the period covering an election as well as the campaign season preceding it.

In this regard, Balisacan said next year’s GDP growth goal of 7-8 percent would still be “doable.”

This was despite the slower economic growth posted in the first three quarters of 2014, which averaged 5.8 percent after a disappointing 5.3-percent expansion registered during the third quarter.

Balisacan said the government remained “hopeful” of hitting 6-7 percent full-year growth in 2014, albeit lower than the “very challenging” 6.5-7.5 percent GDP growth target.

The economy must expand by 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter to reach the lower end of this year’s goal, while a lower 6.6-percent growth from October to December is needed to hit a full-year expansion of at least 6 percent.