PH export growth likely slowed in September

MANILA, Philippines–Goods exported by local firms likely rose by a tenth in September—slower than in previous months as demand remained sluggish despite the recovery of major trading partners like the United States.

Singapore’s DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest bank, said the increase in goods shipped from the Philippines could fall short yet again of the “surprising” growth in exports seen in June and July.

“It remains to be seen if the surprising strength in export growth for September can be sustained,” DBS analyst Gundy Cahyadi said in a note to clients over the weekend.

He said exports likely rose by 10.3 percent in September, or about the same as the 10.5-percent growth recorded in August. For the eight months ending in September, export shipments were 9.2 percent ahead year on year. As a result, the country became the third-highest exports performer in East and Southeast Asia, following Vietnam (12.6 percent) and Indonesia (10.6 percent).

Although the value of goods shipped out rose for a third straight month in August, the country’s export gains in June and July were better at 21.3 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively.

The Philippines’ top export markets last August were Japan, China, the United States, other Southeast Asian nations and the European Union.

In a separate note, think tank Moody’s Analytics said factory output could have grown by 7 percent in September, slowing from the 7.5 percent registered the month before.

“The Philippine manufacturing sector cooled in 2014 after surging across the second half of 2013,” Moody’s said.

It added that August production surprised on the downside given that export demand remained firm, particularly from the United States, and the domestic economy continued to expand.

Results of the government’s Monthly Integrated Survey on Selected Industries (MISSI) in August showed factory output slowed from the 17.5-percent hike seen in the same month of 2013.