MANILA, Philippines–The Philippines’ palay output is projected to decline this year for the first time in five years by one percent to settle at 18.6 million tons, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.
By volume, the reduction is expected at 10.3 million tons of palay, equivalent to seven million tons of milled rice.
In its latest Rice Market Monitor report, the FAO said the forecast assumed that the wet-season harvest would be about the same as the 2013 volume.
Still, “the final outcome of the season will depend on the rainfall performance in the coming months, which will in turn determine the availability of water for irrigation of off-season crops,” it added.
The United Nations agency noted that the area planted to rice or palay in the Philippines was reduced by 11 percent to 775,000 hectares, due to the late onset of rains and inadequacy of irrigation water supply.
“Cuts were widespread, but they were particularly concentrated in Western Visayas, Central Luzon, Bicol and Mimaropa,” the FAO said.
“Nonetheless, part of the reduction reflected deliberate planting delays, which are expected to boost production over the last quarter of the year,” the agency said.
Because of erratic weather conditions, the FAO sees a “disappointing” crop year with the global forecast lowered by 6.5 million tons to 744.4 million tons.
“Under current expectations, global paddy production would be marginally (0.4 percent) lower than the 2013 estimate, marking a third year of below-trend growth,” the FAO said.
With domestic production tempered, the Philippines is expected to become the second-largest importer of milled rice in the world market this year, next to China.
Global trade of milled rice is expected to leap by 7 percent to a record 39.7 million, with the upward pressure coming mostly from Asian markets.
“Imports are predicted to increase in all major geographical regions, especially Asia, where important buyers such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, face the need to reconstitute reserves and to lower food inflation,” the FAO said.
“The forecast expansion (of importation) would be, to a large extent, imputable to the Philippines, which may lift its volume of purchases from (700,000 tons) in 2013 to 1.8 million tons in 2014,” it added.