Philippine export revenues are expected to rally strongly in the next three years, and may hit $105.1 billion in 2016, buoyed by the rising demand for the country’s fresh food exports and intermediate goods, and by the recovery of the global electronics sector.
Documents provided during the Philippine Economic Briefing Tuesday showed that, for this year, total exports (covering both merchandise and services) could grow by 8 percent to $85.2 billion. The trade figure may also grow by 10 percent to $94 billion in 2015, and 12 percent to $105.1 billion in 2016.
Merchandise exports alone are projected to grow by 6 percent (to $60.1 billion) this year; 8 percent (to $64.9 billion) next year; and 10 percent (to $71.4 billion) in 2016.
Export receipts of services, meanwhile, are expected to post double-digit growths in the next three years. Services may grow by 15 percent to $25.1 billion in 2014; by 16 percent to $29.1 billion in 2015; and by 16 percent to $33.7 billion in 2016.
“Merchandise exports in 2014 are expected to be driven by the nonelectronics sector, which generated $30 billion in 2013 from $27 billion in 2012. Growth will be supported by increasing demand from Japan, China, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Thailand and other countries in East Asia and the Asean,” the documents showed. “Fresh food exports and intermediate goods spurred the growth of nonelectronics exports. Fruits and vegetables have been enjoying generally good harvests, while processed food and beverages have likewise been experiencing robust demand. Lower tariffs in the Philippine free trade areas have been a boon to Philippine exports.”
The documents also pointed to growth in earnings from shipments of electronic products in 2014. It will be driven by a renewed demand for locally manufactured automotive and consumer electronic products, on the back of improving economic conditions in the United States, Europe and Japan. The new investments in the country’s electronics industry are also expected to support the recovery of shipments in 2014.
The Semiconductor Electronics Industries in the Philippines (Seipi) on Monday announced that it had raised its growth forecast on the sector’s export revenues this year despite the adverse effects of high power costs and the impact of the container congestion at the Port of Manila.
Seipi president Dan Lachica revealed that export revenues of locally manufactured electronics components could grow between 5 and 8 percent this year, from the $21.8 billion recorded in 2013. Seipi’s new and much bullish forecast will be driven by the recovery of the country’s key markets.
Also, Senen M. Perlada of Export Development Council (EDC) said that the forecasts announced Tuesday were well within the range of the proposed 2014-2016 Philippine Export Development Plan.
The development plan, which has yet to be presented to President Aquino for approval, defines the export revenue targets over the three-year period, taking into account the problems affecting local and international markets. It will enable local businesses to maximize their participation in the global value chain over the next three years. Amy R. Remo