NEDA expects inflation to stay within target range

The country’s chief economist is confident that the rate of rise in consumer prices this year will stay well within the government’s target of between 3 and 5 percent.

“The inflation target is still attainable even with increasing pressures that pose significant challenges,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga Jr. said in a statement Thursday.

Private economists appear to back up the views of Paderanga, director general of the National Economic and Development Authority. The economists noted in separate interviews that there had been no sharp changes in the prices of food, fuel, light and water, even though the country’s growth reportedly slowed a bit while the future of the local economy remained uncertain.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday reported that inflation went down to 4.3 percent last month from 4.6 percent in July this year, based on 2000 prices. As a result, inflation from January to August this year averaged 4.3 percent.

The government is now implementing measures to keep prices stable, Paderanga said.

“The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas remains committed to monitor developments and use monetary policy tools if necessary. The Department of Trade and Industry and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) continuously monitor prices in the wet market and hold constant dialogues with manufacturers and industries, in order to keep prices steady. Likewise, the National Price Coordinating Council is aggressively monitoring markets to ensure that no price manipulation takes place,” Paderanga said.

Paderanga added that the slower rate of rise in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as cuts in domestic fuel prices, tempered inflation in August.

“Price increases of both wholesale and retail well-milled rice decelerated in the month of August 2011, while prices of unleaded gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased,” Paderanga reported.

Paderanga noted that the prices of rice increased by only 4 percent in August 2011, from 4.6 percent in July 2011. Citing a BAS report, he said well-milled rice only posted an average increment of P0.10 per kilogram from that of the previous month, while the average price of palay fell from the previous month by 0.2 percent.

Paderanga said that the government saw a slower rate of increase in the prices of electricity, gas, and other fuels, settling at 8.7 percent in August from 9.5 percent the previous month.

“The lower prices of unleaded gasoline, diesel and kerosene offset the higher electricity generation charge and LPG prices,” the NEDA executive said.

Paderanga cited reports that the generation charge collected by the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) rose to P5.40 per kilowatt hour in August 2011 from P5.30 in July 2011, while prices of LPG increased by 2.36 percent in August 2011 from that of the same month last year.

Based on 2006 prices, last month’s inflation figure stood at 4.7 percent, declining from the 5.1 percent seen in July 2011.

Also, average inflation stood at 4.8 percent for the first eight months of the year, based on 2006 prices.

Inflation is the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services commonly purchased by households, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

In June this year, the NSO started to release inflation data based on 2000 and 2006 prices, hoping to ease the transition for future data which would be based solely on 2006 prices. NSO will continue to release dual reports until the end of the year.