PH grew 7% in Q3, says Moody’s

Moody’s Analytics estimates that the Philippine economy grew by 7 percent in the third quarter due to robust local demand.

This will put growth in the first nine months at 7.4 percent, one of the fastest in Asia for the period.

“The Philippines was one of the world’s fastest-expanding economies through the first half of 2013, and this likely continued in the September quarter,” Moody Analytics said in its weekly outlook report.

In the first and second quarters, the Philippines grew by 7.7 and 7.5 percent year on year, respectively, the fastest in Southeast Asia.

The government attributed the growth to the increase in investments by the private sector, higher government spending and rise in household consumption.

The government is set to release this week the official data on gross domestic product (GDP), the key measure of the economy.

Moody’s Analytics, the research unit of Moody’s Corp., said business confidence and rise in bank lending that helped lift industrial production in the first half were also seen in the third quarter.

“The high-frequency data have been strong, with industrial production, bank lending and money supply surging ahead,” Moody’s Analytics said.

It noted, however, that the supertyphoon that hit the country earlier this month could have an impact on economic growth. The extent of the damage will be captured in the fourth quarter economic data, it noted.

Supertyphoon “Yolanda” struck the country on Nov. 8 and hit Central, Western, and Eastern Visayas regions, which together account for 12.5 percent of GDP.

Yolanda has caused an estimated P10 billion in losses for the agriculture sector.

Based on estimates by the National Economic and Development Authority, GDP growth in the fourth quarter could slow down to only 4.1 percent as a result of the calamity.

But Neda said full-year economic growth would likely be between 6.5 and 7 percent, still within the official target of 6 to 7 percent.