PH growth rate expected to slow down in Q4

After registering one of the fastest growth rates in emerging Asia during the first half of the year, the Philippine economy may slow down in the fourth quarter because of the devastation caused by Supertyphoon Yolanda.

The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) yesterday said that growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) could settle at only 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, citing not only the loss of lives but also the destruction of property mostly in central Philippines.

The Neda now expects GDP growth for the full year to settle at a range of 6.5 and 7 percent, slower than the earlier forecast of 7.3 percent.

But the latest full-year GDP growth forecast still remains at the high end of the government’s 2013 target of 6 to 7 percent.

This is because of the robust growth of the economy in the first two quarters—at 7.7 and 7.5 percent, respectively. The figures were the highest in Asia during the period matched only by that of China.

The extent of the damage in the Visayas will likely affect the country’s growth, the Neda said.

The three hardest hit regions of the country—Eastern, Western, and Central Visayas—account for about 12.5 percent of the country’s output, and around 20 percent of the population.

Neda Director General Arsenio Balisacan acknowledged the need for relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts to ease the impact of the calamity on the economy.

“To ensure that we regain lost ground the soonest, we need to accelerate the implementation of social and economic development projects,” Balisacan said in a statement.

The government is now under fire from critics because of the slow pace of distribution of relief goods and medical supplies in storm-stricken areas.

Although there has been a surge in relief goods from foreign donors, the supplies are not reaching those who are most in need.

Officials said the damage to roads, communication lines and local government offices hindered the effective distribution of supplies and prevented them from reaching far-flung areas badly hit by the supertyphoon.

Officials of the local government and emergency personnel claim to be victims of the calamity themselves, and cannot effectively provide much-needed help.

Government agencies will soon come up with a master plan to reconstruct the devastated areas.

Reconstruction should start once relief and clearing operations have been concluded, the Neda said.

“It is important to quickly assess the damage and losses, and to determine the right sequence of government actions,” Balisacan said.