Optimistic but challenging, analysts view 4Q

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The year 2013 is on the home stretch, but the jury is still out on whether the last quarter of the year—which is already halfway through—would be a fitting ending to an already slam-bang year for the property industry.

Inquirer Property has asked property analysts their views of the fourth quarter.

“We are of the opinion that the property climate for the fourth quarter will sustain the positive momentum/gain exhibited in the previous quarters due to the seasonal uptick in demand, especially for the residential condominium sector,” says Claro dG. Cordero Jr., Jones Lang LaSalle’s head for Research, Consulting and Valuation.

Cordero adds: “The overseas Filipinos (OFs) normally come home during this period and they are likely to contribute to sales growth for the residential condominium projects. For property investors and corporates, we are likely to see some major investment transactions, as some of the investors need to unload their funds, which are likely to be transferred to stable markets such as the Philippine property market. These investment funds were waiting to be invested in other markets whose growth directions have been significantly affected by major global economic/investment issues.”

Best-performing economy

Rick Santos, CBRE chair and founder, says: “The Philippines is indeed moving from good to great. Last year (2012) was remarkable for the country, but 2013 is exceeding past achievements. The Philippines is now the best performing economy in Asia at 7.6 percent GDP, surpassing China; it has gathered three historic investment grades from S&P, Fitch and Moody’s Ratings.”

Enrique M. Soriano III, Ateneo program director for real estate and senior adviser for Wong+Bernstein Business Advisory, describes the last quarter to be “quite challenging for the property sector.”

“It’s a tough race to outperform last year’s outstanding performance across all asset classes,” he muses.

Soriano adds: The conduct and performance of the industry will hinge on several key measurements like sectoral growth, stock market, capital gains, liquidity, investment performance, supply and demand, market competition, GDP [gross domestic product] contribution to real estate, the sector’s contribution to employment, construction, real estate price and value trend.”

Jan Custodio, head of CBRE Philippines Global Research and Consultancy, says, “The Philippine property market will continue to be positive for the rest of the year. With the country now rated investment grade by three of the world’s leading credit rating agencies, we anticipate a promising 2014 for the real estate sector.”

Peak months

Late last month, Inquirer Property reported that brisk sales of condominium units would continue despite a recent study predicting the dire consequences on life and property should an earthquake similar in magnitude to the Central Visayas temblor hit the nation’s capital region.

Soriano explains that the study would have “little effect,” adding that only a “very small percentage” of the high-end segment would likely rethink their purchases.

“Overall, sales of condos that are mostly in the predevelopment stages will continue to be brisk, given the fact that November to February is considered a peak month for real estate sales. Traditionally, overseas Filipinos spend their holidays in the country,” Soriano says.

“On a macro economic level, the optimism and confidence in the economy will continue to spur investors to bet on the equities and property markets. Returns in these sectors are still one of the best in the Asia-Pacific region,” observed Soriano.