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Emerging markets soon to outstrip rich ones, says WB

By Michelle Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 22:48:00 05/17/2011

Filed Under: Economy and Business and Finance, Forecasts

MANILA, Philippines?Emerging economies like the Philippines will play an increasingly important role in the global economy over the medium to long term, continually exceeding growth rates of industrialized nations and accounting for bigger shares of the world?s output.

This was according to the latest report by the World Bank, which projected that by 2025, the world economy?s total production would be divided almost equally between currently rich countries and the emerging markets.

In a report titled ?Multipolarity: The New Global Economy,? the World Bank said emerging economies could grow by an average of 4.7 percent this year until 2025. Industrialized nations are only projected to expand by an average of 2.3 percent.

Consequently, the former will eventually catch up with the latter in terms of contributions to global output.

?One of the most visible outcomes of this transformation is the rise of a number of dynamic emerging market countries to the helm of the global economy,? the World Bank said.

Also, countries that may lead emerging markets in driving the global economy include China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Russian Federation.

The World Bank noted that currently, emerging markets accounted for two-thirds of the world?s foreign exchange reserves?a reversal of the picture of the previous decade when industrialized countries owned bulk of the reserves.

China has the biggest share of the global reserves among emerging markets at $3 trillion.

?In short, a new world order with a more diffused distribution of economic power is emerging?thus the shift toward multipolarity,? the World Bank said in the report.

The rising role of emerging markets will eventually diminish the prominence of the US dollar in international trade and finance.

The World Bank said that eventually countries would keep almost equal shares of the US dollar, the euro and the renminbi in their foreign exchange reserves.

The projections made by the World Bank came amid continued strength of emerging economies in terms of growth in output relative to their counterparts in the industrialized world.

Following the latest global economic crisis, which peaked in 2009, industrialized nations like the United States and a number from Europe have posted moderate recoveries, the sustainability of which is even doubted by some economists and analysts.

The United States, for one, is battling with its growing debt. Some countries from the Euro zone are also trying to cope with their debt woes.

On the other hand, emerging economies grew significantly last year and are expected this year to again outperform rich countries in terms of growth rates.

In the case of the Philippines, it grew by 7.3 percent last year, registering its fastest pace in over three decades.

The domestic economy is expected to record a growth of more or less 5 percent this year, according to some economists. Still, the government remains optimistic that the economy will sustain growth of at least 7 percent this year.

But the World Bank said some emerging markets faced difficult challenges that would make it less easier for them to contribute more to global output.

These challenges include rising oil prices, which have adversely affected consumption in oil-importing countries, and rising interest rates.



Copyright 2013 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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