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Impact of Dubai crisis on RP seen minimal

Emerging markets need not worry

By Michelle Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:56:00 12/01/2009

Filed Under: Foreign affairs & international relations, Overseas Employment

MANILA, Philippines - Two top credit-rating agencies — Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service—said the Philippines and other emerging economies in Asia can afford to stay calm amid the latest turmoil created by the debt woes of Dubai.

Fitch and Moody’s said the announcement of the Dubai government last week that it would restructure loans of state-owned firm Dubai World and its subsidiary Nakheel would not have an immediate impact on the credit image of emerging economies in Asia.

In an e-mail to the Inquirer, Andrew Colquhoun of Fitch said investors would still assess the Philippines and other emerging markets based on their individual credit performances rather than on the developments in Dubai.

“I would not expect events in Dubai alone to dominate investor sentiment toward emerging markets as a whole. The economic and credit fundamentals of countries will continue to be the most important consideration,” said Colquhoun, Fitch’s lead sovereign analyst for the Philippines.

Colquhoun said any negative knee-jerk reaction would be outweighed by prudent assessment of credit standings of the Asian economies. The trend of gradually rising foreign-currency inflows would not necessarily be countered by the events in Dubai, he added.

Meantime, Moody’s said credit ratings of the Philippines and developing Asian economies would not be downgraded just because of the problems of Dubai. The credit-rating firm said it did not see a contagion coming from Dubai to affect other parts of Asia, at least for now.

Dubai’s debt situation posed problems to the banking sector of the United Arab Emirates, said Moody’s, but would unlikely have an immediate negative impact on other parts of Asia.

“There is no evidence of systemic stresses building in any one country in the emerging markets of Asia in a way similar to Dubai,” Brian Cahill, managing director of Moody’s, said in the credit-rating firm’s weekly credit outlook.

Meanwhile, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it would carefully monitor the situation to determine whatever impact it might have on the domestic economy, particularly on consumer prices and on the country’s own banking sector.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said an initial review showed that Philippine banks had no direct exposure to Dubai World and Nakheel. Any loan restructuring by these firms, therefore, would not have a bearing on the performance of banks in the Philippines.



Copyright 2010 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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