MANILA, Philippines - Growth in remittances will likely enter double-digit territory in December as Filipinos abroad, perked up by improving global economic conditions, are expected to send in more cash for the holidays.
Goldman Sachs projected an 11 percent annual growth in remittances to $1.55 billion for December.
Rising prices of oil in the world market, which fuels growth of countries in the Middle East?host to many Filipino workers?may boost the amount of money sent to the Philippines, Goldman Sachs said in a paper on its assessment of the Philippine economy.
The investment bank also said the improving global economic climate, which prompted some firms to rehire laid off workers, would also support growth in remittances.
In addition, Filipinos abroad normally send more money to their loved ones in December, when households increase spending for the holidays.
In the past months, growth in remittances had slowed to a single-digit level after the United States and other industrialized countries fell into recession.
From January to September, remittances amounted to $12.8 billion, up 4.2 percent from $12.27 billion in the same period a year ago.
The fastest year-on-year growth in remittances so far this year came in September, when money sent in reached $1.33 billion, up 8.6 percent.
Goldman Sachs said remittances would further grow in the coming months.
As a consequence, it expects the peso to strengthen to 44.58 to a dollar within the next three months, 45.5 within the next six months, and 44.5 within the next 12 months.
?We expect remittances to become increasingly more supportive of the [peso],? Goldman Sachs said.
This view is supported by Singapore-based DBS Bank, which expects the peso to settle at 44 to the dollar by the end of next year as the country improves its liquidity position.
In its daily report on the regional financial market issued Nov. 19, DBS said the peso proved to be more resilient to budget deficits this year than in the past.
The bank said that, even though the budget deficit had ballooned to P266.1 billion in the 10 months to October, the peso stayed largely within its post-crisis range of 46.35 and 48.70 against the dollar.
On Wednesday, Finance Secretary Margarito B. Teves said the full-year deficit would likely hit P280 billion. It could also reach P300 billion if the government were not able to sell its stake in conglomerate San Miguel Corp.
Still, the peso-dollar exchange rate may ?eventually break below the lower limit of the range (P46.35) toward 44 by end-2010,? DBS said.