MANILA, Philippines—Philippine agricultural production in the second quarter of the year is expected to post slower growth from a year ago.

“We are reviewing [the growth estimate]. We are looking at maybe 1.5 to 2 percent,” Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said. Agricultural production grew 5.4 percent in the second quarter last year.

Yap would not cite specific factors for the expected slowdown in growth. However, since early 2009, Yap had pointed to climate change as the single most destabilizing influence on agricultural production.

High input costs and lack of competitiveness against cheaper commodity imports also discourage production in some sectors such as corn, milk and coffee, among others.

In the first quarter, agriculture grew by only 2.02 percent compared with 3.89 percent in the same period last year.

For the whole of 2009, the department is aiming for a 3-percent growth in agricultural production despite early storms and a less-than-stellar output in the first few months, Yap said.

But beyond this year’s growth, the agriculture department has set it sights on self-sufficiency in various products, including bioethanol, milk and coffee. He said the recent trip to Brazil by agriculture officials and private agribusiness leaders would help the country achieve this target “in a few years.”

“In the next five to eight years we have to make sure that when we implement the E10 blend [up to 10-percent volume blend of bioethanol in petrol], we can comply,” he said.

It would take an investment of about P10 billion to modernize sugar mills to produce ethanol for domestic use, Yap said.

Yap said the country has a deficit of 500 million liters of ethanol. Industry figures place the estimated ethanol deficit at only 169 million liters.