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INTERVIEW
2009 growth seen at high end of range


Reuters
First Posted 13:07:00 01/09/2009

Filed Under: Government, Macro Economics, Economic Indicators, Economy and Business and Finance

MANILA, Philippines -- The economy can expand at the high end of a 3.7-4.7 percent forecast range in 2009 if spending plans are implemented on time, the government's top economic planner said on Friday.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto also said in an interview with Reuters that growth was around the forecast 4.6 percent in 2008 despite the impact of the global downturn.

He said the Southeast Asian country will face a difficult time this year, but growth in 2009 could hit the higher end of the government's estimate with the help of the state's P300 billion ($6.4 billion) "economic resiliency plan."

"If we can spend these resources wisely and spend them quickly in the first six months of the year, then you could probably achieve the higher end of our growth target," Recto said.

A Reuters poll last month showed the Philippine economy may grow 3.3 percent this year, its slowest growth in eight years.

Manila has proposed a P1.41 trillion spending plan to Congress, but the upper and lower chambers still have to meet to thrash out differences in their versions of the 2009 budget bill. That would be on top of the agenda when Congress resumes sessions on Jan. 19.

It then has to go to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for signing before funds can be released.

Part of the budget would be used to finance the government fiscal stimulus package meant to save and create jobs, rehabilitate and upgrade existing infrastructure, and ensure a major slowdown in growth is prevented.

On 2008 growth, Recto said: "There is reason for me to believe that we did well in the fourth quarter, and my estimate for full year (growth) will roughly be 4.6 percent."

Brisk Christmas spending in the fourth quarter and lower commodity prices, which underpinned domestic consumption, would have supported growth in the quarter, he said.

The government will announce full-year 2008 growth figures on January 29.



Copyright 2009 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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