More surprises in trading direction

President Rodrigo Duterte. AP 

Still reeling from incidents in and outside the country, the market was again hit last week by events that may yet spring a surprise in its direction.

One was the decision of President Duterte to attend the ongoing Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru. The Apec is the forum of 21 Pacific Rim economies that account for 57 percent of the global economy, 48 percent of global trade and 40 percent of the  world’s population. The meetings allow members to enter into agreements on a regime of free and open trade and liberal investments throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

One that could possibly threaten the success of the international summit is the ascendancy to the US presidency of Donald Trump, who has threatened to scrap the Trans Pacific Partnership forged by the US, which was seen to foster free trade with 12 Pacific Rim states, in favor of “protecting” American interests.

Mr. Duterte was at first lukewarm to the idea of going to the Apec meeting. He left on Thursday. His officials explained that his trip would “allow him the chance to explain his platforms and to showcase his mystique” or unique ideas and beliefs. In addition, the President is expected to hold bilateral meetings (among other heads of governments) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (whom he called his “idol”) and Chinese President Xi Jinping as a step toward his vision to cut the country’s dependency on the United States.

The President has been veering toward China and Russia following a rift with the US over his war on illegal drugs.

Yet, the biggest development was the burial of former President Marcos at the Libingan ng mga Bayani in a secretive ceremony last Friday.

This, after the Supreme Court said there was no legal impediment to the decision of Mr. Duterte to allow Marcos to be laid to rest at the cemetery, rejecting  complaints that the dictator did not deserve such an honor because of his many crimes.

The event opened old wounds and issues for the last three decades relating to his brutal rule, human rights abuses and hidden wealth and tainted the 1986 People Power revolution that toppled him.

Another issue, albeit trumped by the Marcos burial, was the arrival of Kerwin Espinosa also on Friday. Espinosa, who was brought back by police operatives from the United Arab Emirates, is the alleged drug kingpin of the Eastern Visayas region  and son of Albuera Mayor Rolando Espinosa, who was killed on Nov. 5 inside his cell at the Baybay City jail while being served a warrant by investigators.

As of last Saturday, the younger Espinosa had reportedly already reviewed the affidavit made by his father and was also preparing his own that would detail the drug operation and unmask his protectors in government.

They are said to include some elected officials and police officials, whom Kerwin is expected to reveal when he testifies at the Senate inquiry on Nov. 23. There, Kerwin will meet Sen. Leila de Lima, whom his father had accused as among the protectors of Kerwin in government.

Bottom line spin

Surprisingly, trading last week ended in positive territory, enabling the market to claw back to the critical 7,000-benchmark level. Obviously, these controversial events were taken by the market positively. When Trump won the US presidential elections, the US market even rose to record highs despite doing the reverse during the campaign period.

More than that, the market’s rebound last week could also be attributed to the country’s third-quarter growth of 7.1 percent.

This was a welcome development following dismal third-quarter earnings results of some of the major companies. Current levels of share prices, however, have remained a challenge. Still, they are at a premium over similar issues in the region. Another is the observation that foreign investors were still net sellers.

The expected interest rate increase by the US Fed next month may also bring more surprises in the trading direction of the local market in the near term.