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imns


Mr. Bearbull
Paulson’s turnabout

By Ron Nathan
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:32:00 11/18/2008

Filed Under: world financial crisis

The G-20 met and agreed to work together to tackle the ever-worsening global crisis. That is about all they did and set another meeting for next April. However, the G-7, which comprises the most important European countries, has been coordinating interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve and the IMF are doling out vast sums of money to get world economies moving again.

Indeed, there has never been such cooperation among the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia, and for the first time in history, there is a global attempt to avert an impending world recession.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has completely changed his position on the $700-billion bailout package, now supposed to include the automakers, but the actual amount that will be needed is likely to be $2 trillion or more. There are so many advances being made by the Fed under different programs that the taxpayer hasn’t a clue as to what is happening yet still the Bush administration is claiming to be transparent.

Once Paulson reversed his decision to relieve banks of their troubled mortgage related assets and use Tarp resources to strengthen the financial system and support lending to consumers, the whole picture changed. Citibank was in line to divest itself of $79 billion worth of troubled assets; instead, it suddenly found itself being at least partially controlled. The shares fell and the bank announced another layoff of 30,000. American Express suddenly decided to become a bank and apply for financial help from the Fed. Whether this decision by Paulson turns out to be justified, I do not know, but it has left everybody in a state of uncertainty.

An immediate problem requiring attention is the possible bailout of the auto industry, tagged as a dinosaur. House Speaker Pelosi said that aid would be forthcoming but did not confirm the $25 billion asked for. It might come from the $700 billion bailout and there would be strings attached, requiring that industry meet new fuel-efficiency standards, produce advanced vehicles and restructure so as to ensure its long-term viability.

Senator Dodd made it clear that he did not support an unconditional bailout and said that the auto industry had continued to make Hummers when they should have been making electric cars.

He blamed the top management of the big three for failing to foresee the changing trends and pointed to the success of Toyota. He doubted whether next week’s vote would favor a bailout and echoed the view of Democrats that there would have to be major changes in labor practices, union healthcare, suppliers and lenders.

Obama is unlikely to hand over the money without strict conditions and a consolidation of the big three. Failure of the automakers to comply would probably lead to their eventually demise. In any event, there is likely to be a massive loss of jobs in Detroit.

I like the way Obama, in his one-on-one meeting with President Bush, said Mr. President, you’re in charge until Jan. 20 and until then, you are running the show. So all-impending and current disasters will be blamed (rightly) on the Bush administration and he can start with clean hands. All new governments are given a three-month honeymoon period and Obama is going to get all the credit if he can eventually sort out this mess. Just before the result, he dreamt he was on Mount Sinai and saw the burning Bush.

The CNN opinion poll shows that 76 percent of the people believe that Obama will improve economic conditions and bring stability to the financial markets. The first action that he will take is to extend unemployment benefits, which will help one million Americans. He has also promised tax cuts for the middle class, but he has to contend with an $11-trillion deficit. Not every new program can be paid for and some expectations will not be met.

There is also the problem of what will happen if trillions of dollars are pumped into the economy and also lent out to overseas banks. If history is any guide, then at some point down the road, with all countries having low interest rates, there will be rapid inflation resulting in a sizable devaluation of the dollar.

At present, China and Saudi Arabia hold virtually all the outstanding treasury bills but might switching start into gold, silver and other commodities, hard and soft. Oil will return to $100 a barrel, gold to $1000 an ounce and there will be a worldwide rush to buy real assets.

Anyone can print paper money, look at Zimbabwe with 150,000 per cent inflation but you cannot print steel, manganese and nickel, they are finite. Nor can you print land and there are only a limited amount of crops that can be produced to feed the ever-growing population. I agree with Jim Rogers, that the best investments are commodities and the worst are dollar bonds.

The retail US sales figures for October were down 2.8 percent, the lowest since 2001 and no recovery is in sight with house prices still falling and unemployment rising. I have started moving some of my money under the mattress into commodities and there is one obvious buy, 40 percent upside and virtually no downside. Results in the local market are depressing, including those of TEL, HLCM, JGS, BPC, FGEN, FPH, PNB and AC, to name but a few.

* * *

My wife is a sex object. Every time I ask for sex, she objects. We sleep in separate beds. Mine is in Ortigas, hers is in Makati.

I take my wife to distant countries but she always finds her way back.

We always hold hands. If I let go, she shops.

She has an electric blender, electric toaster, electric oven and so many gadgets that there is nowhere to sit down. So I bought her an electric chair.

She ran after the garbage truck, yelling, “Am I too late for the garbage?” “No,” said the driver. “Jump in.”

She got a mudpack and looked great for two days. Then, the mud fell off.



Copyright 2009 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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