WASHINGTON ? The recession gripping the United States for nearly two years is over, but economic growth may be held in check by high unemployment, a poll of business economists showed Monday.

"The Great Recession is over," according to the consensus macroeconomic outlook of a panel of 44 professional forecasters of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).

"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," NABE president-elect Lynn Reaser said.

More than 80 percent of economists surveyed believed that an expansion has begun, according to poll conducted during the September 2-24 period.

The study also found that the more-than-three-year downturn in the US housing market, epicenter of financial turmoil that slammed the brakes on growth, was very close to ending, with an upturn expected next year, said Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.

According to the survey, the key areas of concern were the increasing federal debt and unemployment rates, "expected to remain very high through next year."

The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010 while inflation is expected to remain contained throughout next year.

"The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the US economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," the NABE said.

The stock market rebound was a point of "strong agreement" among panelists, with all the forecasters predicting a gain in 2010 on the back of an increase of 11 percent in corporate profits next year.

They saw the broad S&P 500 stock index climbing 7.5 percent next year.

The US dollar however will soften further this year and remain weak into 2010, the survey showed.

The economists felt that the weak dollar will not reduce the trade deficit further as the relatively stronger US economic rebound elevated import demand. In fact, the NABE panel expected a modest deterioration in the trade balance next year.

The panel upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey, Reaser said.

Following a sharp 6.4 percent contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 0.7 percent drop in the second quarter, NABE forecasters expect real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise at an above trend 2.9 percent rate in the second half of 2009.

The NABE also said that lackluster household sector spending was expected to be a drag on the economy, restraining growth of consumer spending, a key driver of growth.

However, in contrast to views of some that the US saving rate was set to rise dramatically over the next few years, slightly more than half of the NABE panel believed that the rate will average between three and five percent through 2012.

The poll also found corporate profits to show "strong improvement," increasing 11 percent in 2010, characteristic of the early stages of an economic recovery.