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Improved outlook pushes oil above $66


Agence France-Presse
First Posted 05:38:00 05/30/2009

Filed Under: Oil & Gas - Downstream activities, Economic Indicators, Forecasts, Markets & Exchanges

NEW YORK -- Oil prices soared Friday above $66, approaching seven-month highs on further signs of economic recovery and as the US currency plunged to a 2009 low against the euro.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in July, rallied to $66.47 a barrel, a level last seen in the first week of November.

It ended Friday at $66.31, $1.23 higher than the close on Thursday.

Brent North Sea crude for July rose $1.13 to end the week at $65.52 after touching $65.70, also a level last seen in early November.

Oil prices have climbed rapidly since the start of the week, when they were below $60, on growing optimism about a global economic recovery and a pick-up in demand.

Analysts expect prices to continue soaring amid positive economic data, including from Asian giants India and Japan.

"Oil market participants' conclusion that the worst of the recession has passed and that a recovery in demand must be at hand was bolstered overnight by higher than expected first quarter growth in India and a sharp jump in Japan's April industrial production," said John Kilduff of MF Global.

As buying of oil continued unabated, he warned of a potential price bubble.

"Eventually someone, somewhere is going to stumble upon the very unpleasant truth that a broad-based economic expansion in an environment where interest rates are rising, currency valuations are deteriorating and the central bank continues to monetize shortfalls is virtually impossible," Kilduff said.

Barclays Capital in a report Friday said it expected prices to move above $75, "and potentially fairly rapidly, as the market's fear of economic discontinuities abates further."

It said that a growing market belief in OPEC's "ability to control the downside is likely to mean that $75 may arrive well before all the physical market adjustments are completed, requiring OPEC to maintain supply-side pressure even after $75 is achieved."

The OPEC oil cartel decided Thursday to keep output unchanged, with signs of economic recovery and higher crude prices persuading members to maintain current production levels.

Traders said the market Friday got a boost after revised figures showed the US economy, the world's largest energy market, shrank 5.7 percent in the first quarter, less than the initial estimate of a 6.1 percent annualized decline and a 6.3 percent fall in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile the dollar fell as confident investors felt freer to take their funds out of the safehaven US unit amid increasing signs of global recovery, traders said.

"Oil continues its magnificent run on the back of dollar weakness," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

The weak dollar makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for holders of stronger currencies and in turn, tends to stimulate demand and push prices higher.

Prices were also propelled higher on Friday by OPEC's decision to hold output and falling US crude reserves, traders said.

"News that OPEC decided to keep production quotas unchanged... and a steep drop in US crude oil inventories meant that the petroleum complex strengthened," analysts at the John Hall Associates consultancy said.

The US government reported Thursday that American crude stockpiles tumbled 5.4 million barrels last week, indicating strong demand in the world's biggest energy consuming nation. Market expectations had been for a much smaller drop of 500,000 barrels.



Copyright 2009 Agence France-Presse. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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