MANILA, Philippines—Rice production in the country is forecast to fall by three-fourths from current levels in 10 years if nothing is done to mitigate and adapt to climate change, the Asian Development Bank said Tuesday.

Zhuang Juzhong, the ADB assistant chief economist, said rice production could fall from 50 to 70 percent by 2020.

He said this decline could continue until the end of this century, “if there is a business-as-usual attitude toward climate change.”

Zhuang is one of the economists who worked on the study, “The Economic of Climate Change in Southwest Asia: A Regional Review,” which was released to media Tuesday.

The report said climate change would stunt economic growth in the Philippines if measures are not undertaken to mitigate its effects.

“Climate change seriously threatens the Philippines’ economic development. The worst is yet to come,” Zhuang said.

According to the study, 6.7 percent of a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) can be lost if the threat of climate change is ignored.

This loss in the GDP would dwarf the losses being incurred in the current global financial crisis, Zhuang said.

More cyclones, heavy flooding

The Philippines is likely to face more cyclones, heavy flooding and other extreme weather events unless the effects of global warming are controlled, according to the study.

In particular, rising sea levels could submerge small islands and lead to the loss of arable lands in low-lying coastal areas.

Rising temperatures and climatic changes will lead to more extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones. Rainfall will dramatically increase in the Philippines because of climate change, exacerbating flooding.

Poorer future

The Philippines shares this climate change dilemma with neighbors Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. The study predicts a “poorer future” for these countries if actions to prevent global warming are deferred.

The four countries were also warned of possible temperature change and the rise of sea levels due to global warming if greenhouse gas emissions are not checked. In particular, the four countries could experience a mean of 4.8 Celsius increase in temperature by 2100 together with the extreme changes in the weather.

Also, the four could experience a 70-centimeter increase in sea levels by the end of the century, which would force the relocation of millions of people living on the coasts, the study said.

Zhuang said the benefits of taking action on climate change would far outweigh the costs.

“The Philippines has much to gain and nothing to lose by investing in low-cost and no-cost adaptation and mitigation measures,” said Zhuang. With Liza Duran-Seco