SINGAPORE - Investors are cautiously trimming some of their extreme short positions in Asian currencies and other risky assets on the view that the worst of the credit crisis may be over, a Reuters poll shows.
Analysts suspect that the threat of a deep global economic downturn will keep investors cautious about allocating money to emerging markets for some time to come.
But since late October, there have been signs that investors are moving out of safe-haven dollars into some Asian stocks and currencies, reassured by the cash injections and support central banks worldwide are providing to markets.
The twice-monthly survey asked 10 currency strategists to estimate how the market is positioned in seven Asian currencies against the US dollar. The survey was conducted on Friday and Monday.
It measures estimates of the net long or short position in a currency on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long on dollars.
The findings of the survey are as follows:
SOUTH KOREAN WON
The average positioning was plus 0.8 compared with plus 1.8 in the previous poll conducted two weeks ago, indicating investors have pared bearish positions in the won. The latest estimates ranged between minus 2 and plus 2.
SINGAPORE DOLLAR
The average positioning was plus 1.1 compared with plus 1.36 in the previous poll, suggesting market players remained short on the Singapore dollar from August through early October. The scores ranged between minus 2 and plus 3.
INDONESIAN RUPIAH
The average positioning was plus 1.4 compared with plus 1.32 previously, implying investors remained bearish on the rupiah. Scores ranged from zero to plus 3.
TAIWAN DOLLAR
The average score was plus 1.2 compared with plus 1.09 in the previous poll, suggesting investors were slightly more bearish on the Taiwan currency. Scores ranged from minus 1 to plus 3.
INDIAN RUPEE
The average score was plus 1.2 compared with plus 2.05 previously, implying investors have cut their short rupee positions. The scores ranged from minus 2 to plus 3.
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT
The average positioning was plus 1.2 compared with plus 1.45 in the previous poll, indicating investors have become slightly less bearish on the ringgit. Scores ranged from minus 2 to plus 3.
PHILIPPINE PESO
The average positioning was plus 1.2 against plus 1.59 in the previous poll, implying investors retained short positions on the peso. Scores ranged from minus 1 to plus 2.